Investigating setting-specific superspreading potential and generation intervals of COVID-19 in Hong Kong
Nature Communications, vol. 16, pp. 5816
Abstract
Abstract Superspreading is an important feature of SARS-CoV-2, though few studies have investigated quantitatively how transmission characteristics can vary by setting. Using detailed clustering data comprising 8635 SARS-CoV-2 cases confirmed in Hong Kong between 2020–2021 and a negative binomial cluster size model, we estimate the mean number of new infections expected in a cluster CZ and the degree of overdispersion (k) by setting. Estimates of CZ ranged between 0.3–6.1 across eight distinct transmission settings. Close-social indoor (e.g. bars and clubs) and elderly care home settings had the highest CZ around 6, meaning for every introduction an average of six new infections is expected. Overdispersion also differed by setting, ranging from extremely heterogeneous (k = 0.05) to less heterogeneous (k = 1), and was highest in retail, close-social indoor, and care homes settings (k < 0.1), where lower values of k indicate higher superspreading potential. We found that the mean generation interval (GI) also varied by setting (range: 4.4–7.2 days), and settings with shorter mean GIs were associated with smaller cluster sizes. Our results explicitly quantify and demonstrate that superspreading potential and transmission parameters such as the GI can vary across settings, which highlights the need of setting-specific interventions for effective outbreak control.
Authors 11
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Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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Affiliation as printed
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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Leiden University Medical Center · National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
Affiliation as printed
Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Benjamin John Cowling corresponding
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China. bcowling@hku.hk
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China. bcowling@hku.hk
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Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health · University of Hong Kong
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
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