Towards high resolution, validated and open global wind power assessments

Nature Communications, vol. 17, pp. 539

Abstract

Wind power is widely recognized as a key component of future net-zero energy systems. However, substantial variability among current wind resource and power simulations used for wind farm deployment limits the reliability of siting and system integration decisions. Therefore, we present a transparent, open source, validated and evaluated, global wind power simulation workflow for the renewable energy simulation tool ETHOS.RESKit. As the first wind simulation workflow using the new Global Wind Atlas 4 and the fifth iteration of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis, it is capable of simulating time-resolved energy output of wind turbines with high spatial resolution and customizable designs for both onshore and offshore wind turbines. The tool has undergone an extensive validation and calibration process using over 18 million global measurements from meteorological masts for wind speed bias correction and 8 million measurements from wind turbine sites across 6 countries during 2002 to 2021. In comparison with measured energy yield from wind turbine sites, we achieve a global average capacity factor mean error of 5.6% and Pearson correlation of 0.844. In addition, we evaluate its performance against annually aggregated energy production data from operational wind farms and country-level wind power generation statistics reported by energy agencies, demonstrating its accuracy across multiple spatial and temporal scales with a mean error of only 0.6%. Additionally, a final calibration step ensures alignment of the simulation with real world statistics. The release of ETHOS.RESKit is a step towards a fully open source and open data approach to accurate wind power modeling by incorporating comprehensive simulation advances in one model.

Authors 11

1. Edgar Ubaldo Peña-Sánchez Aachen Chair for Fuel Cells Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

   Forschungszentrum Jülich · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair for Fuel Cells, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

   Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

2. Philipp Dunkel corresponding Aachen Chair for Fuel Cells Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

   Forschungszentrum Jülich · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair for Fuel Cells, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany. p.dunkel@fz-juelich.de

   Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany. p.dunkel@fz-juelich.de

3. Heidi Heinrichs

   Forschungszentrum Jülich · University of Siegen

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair for Energy Systems Analysis, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany

   Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

4. Fritz B. Prinz

   Forschungszentrum Jülich

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

5. Jann Michael Weinand

   Forschungszentrum Jülich

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

6. Rachel Maier Aachen Chair for Fuel Cells Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

   Forschungszentrum Jülich · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair for Fuel Cells, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

   Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

7. Sebastian Dickler

   Forschungszentrum Jülich

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

8. Katharina Gruber

   BOKU University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

9. Theresa Klütz

   Forschungszentrum Jülich

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

10. Jochen Linßen

    Forschungszentrum Jülich

    Affiliation as printed

    Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

11. Detlef Stolten Aachen Chair for Fuel Cells Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

    Forschungszentrum Jülich · RWTH Aachen University

    Affiliation as printed

    Chair for Fuel Cells, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

    Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Jülich Systems Analysis (ICE-2), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany