The hydrogen field in 2035: A Delphi study forecasting dominant technology bundles

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 207, pp. 123593

Abstract

Hydrogen might play an essential role in mitigating climate change. It can be applied across a set of both easy and hard-to-abate use-cases. But, most hydrogen-based technologies are not yet market-ready. To prevent wrong investment decisions, both corporates and policymakers need transparency on where the use of hydrogen is most likely and which technologies will be required. Due to their interdependence, all hydrogen-enabling technologies (e.g., fuel cells, electrolyzers, liquid hydrogen shipping) should be seen as a field of interrelated technologies rather than a disjunct set. Past studies viewed single hydrogen-based technologies as isolated or resorted to demand forecasting without detailing the required technologies. Thus, we ran an adapted Delphi-study to create foresight for entire technology fields and create future scenarios purely from Delphi-data. Additionally, we provide an up-to-date holistic scenario-driven view on the future development of the technology field of hydrogen in the year 2035, including its consequences. We ran two interconnected Delphi studies with 50 subject experts. Our results recommend a more targeted research and investment approach to bringing sustainable technologies for the right use-case to market.

Authors 5

1. Leo Leypoldt corresponding Aachen

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   RWTH Aachen, Germany

2. Christina Dienhart corresponding Aachen

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   RWTH Aachen, Germany

3. Hüseyin Caferoglu corresponding Aachen

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   RWTH Aachen, Germany

4. Torsten Oliver Salge corresponding Aachen

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   RWTH Aachen, Germany

5. David Antons corresponding

   University of Bonn

   Affiliation as printed

   Bonn University, Germany