Modelling the heat transition

Abstract

The Dutch government is committed to reducing its dependence on fuel imports and promoting sustainable practices, which has led to plans to move away from gas-powered heating systems towards alternative heat sources such as district heating or electric heat pumps. In this heat transition, DHM provides advice and leadership for investment decisions, particularly at the municipal level. Key considerations include the transition costs, choice of heat commodity, and necessary infrastructure. This project explores three decision-making models that aim to minimize social costs in an objective manner: Monte Carlo simulations, energy hubs, and mathematical programs. The results of this study can be used as a starting point for further research to support a sustainable and cost-effective heat transition.

Authors 10

1. Leander C. van der Bijl

   University of Twente

   Affiliation as printed

   University of Twente

2. Fabio Buccoliero

   Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

3. Yanfei Chen

   KU Leuven

   Affiliation as printed

   KU Leuven

4. Leila Hashemi

   Delft University of Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Delft University of Technology

5. Francesca Leonardi Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

6. Gabriel J. Lord

   Radboud University Nijmegen

   Affiliation as printed

   Radboud University Nijmegen

7. Juan E. Machado

   Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg

   Affiliation as printed

   Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg

8. Zhirui Tang

   KU Leuven

   Affiliation as printed

   KU leuven

9. Leoni Winschermann

   University of Twente

   Affiliation as printed

   University of Twente

10. Jialing Yu Aachen

    Leiden University

    Affiliation as printed

    Leiden University