Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures

Hydrology and earth system sciences, vol. 28, pp. 217–227

Abstract

Abstract. Flood hazard is typically evaluated by computing extreme flood probabilities from a flood frequency distribution following nationally defined procedures in which observed peak flow series are fit to a parametric probability distribution. These procedures, also known as flood frequency analysis, typically recommend only one probability distribution family for all watersheds within a country or region. However, large uncertainties associated with extreme flood probability estimates (>50-year flood or Q50) can be further biased when fit to an inappropriate distribution model because of differences in the tails between distribution families. Here, we demonstrate that hydroclimatic parameters can aid in the selection of a parametric flood frequency distribution. We use L-moment diagrams to visually show the fit of gaged annual maxima series across the United States, grouped by their Köppen climate classification and the precipitation intensities of the basin, to a general extreme value (GEV), log normal 3 (LN3), and Pearson 3 (P3) distribution. Our results show that in real space basic hydroclimatic properties of a basin exert a significant influence on the statistical distribution of the annual maxima. The best-fitted family distribution shifts from a GEV towards an LN3 distribution across a gradient from colder and wetter climates (Köppen group D, continental climates) towards more arid climates (Köppen group B, dry climates). Due to the diversity of hydrologic processes and flood-generating mechanisms among watersheds within large countries like the United States, we recommend that the selection of distribution model be guided by the hydroclimatic properties of the basin rather than relying on a single national distribution model.

Authors 2

1. Joeri B. Reinders corresponding Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University College, Leiden University, the Hague, the Netherlands

2. Samuel E. Muñoz corresponding

   Northeastern University

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA

   Department of Marine and Environmental Sciences, Marine Science Center, Northeastern University, Nahant, MA 01908, USA