Global Sensitivity Analysis to Optimize Basin-Scale Conductive Model Calibration – A Case Study From the Upper Rhine Graben

Abstract

Calibrating geothermal simulations is a critical step, both in scientific and industrial contexts, with suitable model parameterizations being optimised to reduce discrepancies between simulated and measured temperatures. Here we present a methodology to identify unaccounted physical processes in the process and overcome the problem of measurement sparsity. With an application to the Upper Rhine Graben, we demonstrate the essential need for global sensitivity studies to robustly calibrate geothermal models, showing that local studies overestimate the influence of some parameters. We ensure the feasibility of the study through a physics-based machine learning approach, reducing computation time by several orders of magnitude.

Authors 5

1. Denise Degen Aachen Computational Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (CGRE)

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Computational Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (CGRE) , RWTH Aachen University , Wüllnerstraße 2 , 52072 Aachen , Germany

   Computational Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (CGRE), RWTH Aachen University, Wüllnerstraße 2, 52072 Aachen, Germany

2. Karen Veroy Aachen Faculty of Civil Engineering

   RWTH Aachen University · Eindhoven University of Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Analysis, Scientific Computing and Applications, Department of Mathematics & Computer Science, Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e), Groene Loper 5, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

   Faculty of Civil Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 2, Aachen, Germany

3. Jessica Freymark Aachen Department of Geology, Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal

   RWTH Aachen University · GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Geology, Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

   GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

4. Magdalena Scheck‐Wenderoth Aachen Department of Geology, Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal

   RWTH Aachen University · GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Geology, Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

   GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

5. Florian Wellmann Aachen Computational Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (CGRE)

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Computational Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (CGRE) , RWTH Aachen University , Wüllnerstraße 2 , 52072 Aachen , Germany

   Computational Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (CGRE), RWTH Aachen University, Wüllnerstraße 2, 52072 Aachen, Germany