Mobility Trends in Transport Sector Modeling
Future Transportation, vol. 2, pp. 184–215
Abstract
Transport sector models help provide strategic information for the future development of the transportation sector. Such long-term scenarios are typically challenged by uncertainties. Moreover, certain trends, such as the transition to zero-emission transportation systems and modal shifts, as well as connected, shared and autonomous vehicles, are already apparent today. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of these trends on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their implementation in transport sector modeling thus far. The investigations are structured into the four main parts of transport sector greenhouse gas emission calculation: activity, modal share, energy intensity and fuel carbon intensity. Our analysis of the related effects reveals their importance to the transportation sector of the future. Current models and scenarios widely consider trends such as the modal shift and electrification. However, other trends such as the sharing economy and automated driving are not commonly regarded in the context of transport sector modeling. The coupling of the different types of models and collaboration among researchers from the different fields is recommended for filling this gap.
Authors 3
-
RWTH Aachen University · Forschungszentrum Jülich
Affiliation as printed
Chair for Fuel Cells, RWTH Aachen University, c/o Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425 Jülich, Germany
-
Affiliation as printed
Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425 Jülich, Germany
-
RWTH Aachen University · Forschungszentrum Jülich
Affiliation as printed
Chair for Fuel Cells, RWTH Aachen University, c/o Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425 Jülich, Germany
Cited by 7 stored of 7
7 results
No patents citing this paper on Lens.org (checked 2026-10-06).