Model-based analysis of future global transport demand

Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, vol. 23, pp. 101016

Abstract

Transport models are utilized to analyze the transition towards a low-carbon and sustainable future of transportation. Within these analyses, trends in transport demand serve as a crucial parameter. To address this, a cluster-based transport model was developed to estimate future global transport demand on a national level, encompassing both domestic and international transportation, extending until the year 2050. The transport demand was divided into passenger and freight, which were further split into road, rail, marine, and aviation sectors. According to the available transport-related data, the most influential factors on transport demand are gross domestic product per capita and urban population. Model results show an increase in the total passenger and freight transport demand to 183 trillion passenger-km and 395 trillion ton-km in 2050, respectively. This corresponds to a tripling of transport demand compared to 2020, primarily driven by the more significant rise in developing countries compared to developed ones.

Authors 7

1. Steffen Tjandra

   TH Köln - University of Applied Sciences · Forschungszentrum Jülich

   Affiliation as printed

   Cologne Institute for Renewable Energy (CIRE) and Institute of Electrical Power Engineering (IET), TH Köln – University of Applied Sciences, 50678 Cologne, Germany

   Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany

2. Stefan Kraus corresponding Aachen Chair for Fuel Cells

   Forschungszentrum Jülich · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair for Fuel Cells, RWTH Aachen University, c/o Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany

   Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany

3. Shitab Ishmam Aachen Chair for Fuel Cells

   Forschungszentrum Jülich · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair for Fuel Cells, RWTH Aachen University, c/o Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany

   Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany

4. Thomas Grube

   Forschungszentrum Jülich

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany

5. Jochen Linßen

   Forschungszentrum Jülich

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany

6. Johanna Friederike May

   TH Köln - University of Applied Sciences

   Affiliation as printed

   Cologne Institute for Renewable Energy (CIRE) and Institute of Electrical Power Engineering (IET), TH Köln – University of Applied Sciences, 50678 Cologne, Germany

7. Detlef Stolten Aachen Chair for Fuel Cells

   Forschungszentrum Jülich · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair for Fuel Cells, RWTH Aachen University, c/o Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany

   Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany