A

Predictors for extubation failure in COVID-19 patients using a machine learning approach

Critical Care, vol. 25, pp. 448

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Determining the optimal timing for extubation can be challenging in the intensive care. In this study, we aim to identify predictors for extubation failure in critically ill patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We used highly granular data from 3464 adult critically ill COVID patients in the multicenter Dutch Data Warehouse, including demographics, clinical observations, medications, fluid balance, laboratory values, vital signs, and data from life support devices. All intubated patients with at least one extubation attempt were eligible for analysis. Transferred patients, patients admitted for less than 24 h, and patients still admitted at the time of data extraction were excluded. Potential predictors were selected by a team of intensive care physicians. The primary and secondary outcomes were extubation without reintubation or death within the next 7 days and within 48 h, respectively. We trained and validated multiple machine learning algorithms using fivefold nested cross-validation. Predictor importance was estimated using Shapley additive explanations, while cutoff values for the relative probability of failed extubation were estimated through partial dependence plots. RESULTS: A total of 883 patients were included in the model derivation. The reintubation rate was 13.4% within 48 h and 18.9% at day 7, with a mortality rate of 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. The grandient-boost model performed best (area under the curve of 0.70) and was used to calculate predictor importance. Ventilatory characteristics and settings were the most important predictors. More specifically, a controlled mode duration longer than 4 days, a last fraction of inspired oxygen higher than 35%, a mean tidal volume per kg ideal body weight above 8 ml/kg in the day before extubation, and a shorter duration in assisted mode (< 2 days) compared to their median values. Additionally, a higher C-reactive protein and leukocyte count, a lower thrombocyte count, a lower Glasgow coma scale and a lower body mass index compared to their medians were associated with extubation failure. CONCLUSION: The most important predictors for extubation failure in critically ill COVID-19 patients include ventilatory settings, inflammatory parameters, neurological status, and body mass index. These predictors should therefore be routinely captured in electronic health records.

Authors 97

  1. Lucas M. Fleuren corresponding

    Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. l.fleuren@amsterdamumc.nl

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  2. Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  3. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  4. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  5. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  6. Erasmus MC

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

  7. University Medical Center Utrecht

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands

  8. OLVG

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, OLVG, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  9. St. Antonius Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, St. Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands

  10. Sint Franciscus Gasthuis · Franciscus Vlietland

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis and Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

  11. Radboud University Medical Center

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

  12. Amsterdam University Medical Centers

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  13. Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Bovenij Ziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  14. Canisius-Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Canisius Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

  15. Catharina Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Catharina Ziekenhuis Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

  16. Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, ETZ Tilburg, Tilburg, The Netherlands

  17. Haga Hospital

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, HagaZiekenhuis, Den Haag, The Netherlands

  18. Laurentius Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Laurentius Ziekenhuis, Roermond, The Netherlands

  19. Noordwest Ziekenhuisgroep

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, The Netherlands

  20. Reinier de Graaf Hospital

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Reinier de Graaf Gasthuis, Delft, The Netherlands

  21. Spaarne Ziekenhuis · Spaarne Gasthuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem en Hoofddorp, The Netherlands

  22. VieCuri Medisch Centrum

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, VieCuri Medisch Centrum, Venlo, The Netherlands

  23. Zuyderland Medisch Centrum

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Zuyderland MC, Heerlen, The Netherlands

  24. Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis, Den Bosch, The Netherlands

  25. Albert Schweitzer Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Albert Schweitzerziekenhuis, Dordrecht, The Netherlands

  26. Medisch Centrum Haaglanden · Stichting Haaglanden Medisch Centrum

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, Haaglanden Medisch Centrum, Den Haag, The Netherlands

  27. Maasstad Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, Maasstad Ziekenhuis Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

  28. Martini Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, SEH, BWC, Martiniziekenhuis, Groningen, The Netherlands

  29. Ziekenhuis Gelderse Vallei

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Ziekenhuis Gelderse Vallei, Ede, The Netherlands

  30. Ziekenhuis Groep Twente

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Ziekenhuisgroep Twente, Almelo, The Netherlands

  31. Medisch Spectrum Twente

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

  32. Ikazia Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Ikazia Ziekenhuis Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

  33. Antonius Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Antonius Ziekenhuis Sneek, Sneek, The Netherlands

  34. IJsselland Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, IJsselland Ziekenhuis, Capelle Aan Den IJssel, The Netherlands

  35. Affiliation as printed

    ICU, WZA, Assen, The Netherlands

  36. Diakonessenhuis hospital

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Diakonessenhuis Hospital, Utrecht, The Netherlands

  37. Admiraal De Ruyter Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Adrz, Goes, The Netherlands

  38. Amphia Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Amphia Ziekenhuis, Breda, The Netherlands

  39. Leiden University Medical Center

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, LUMC, Leiden, The Netherlands

  40. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  41. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  42. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  43. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  44. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  45. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  46. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  47. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  48. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  49. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  50. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  51. Affiliation as printed

    BigData Republic, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands

  52. Affiliation as printed

    , Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  53. Amsterdam University Medical Centers · University of Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Neurology, Amsterdam UMC, Universiteit Van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  54. Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  55. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Quantitative Data Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  56. Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  57. Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  58. Canisius-Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis · Stichting Haaglanden Medisch Centrum

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Canisius Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    Business Intelligence, Haaglanden MC, Den Haag, The Netherlands

  59. Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Stichting Haaglanden Medisch Centrum · University of Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Business Intelligence, Haaglanden MC, Den Haag, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Universiteit Van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  60. Amsterdam University Medical Centers · University of Amsterdam

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Universiteit Van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, BovenIJ Ziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  61. Catharina Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, BovenIJ Ziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Department of Anesthesiology, Pain Management and Intensive Care, Catharina Ziekenhuis Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

  62. Catharina Ziekenhuis · Erasmus MC

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Anesthesiology, Pain Management and Intensive Care, Catharina Ziekenhuis Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

  63. Erasmus MC · Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, ETZ Tilburg, Tilburg, The Netherlands

  64. Haga Hospital · Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, ETZ Tilburg, Tilburg, The Netherlands

    Department of ICMT, Haga Ziekenhuis, Den Haag, The Netherlands

  65. Haga Hospital · Laurentius Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of ICMT, Haga Ziekenhuis, Den Haag, The Netherlands

    Intensive Care, Laurentius Ziekenhuis, Roermond, The Netherlands

  66. OLVG · Laurentius Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Laurentius Ziekenhuis, Roermond, The Netherlands

    ICU, OLVG, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

  67. Radboud University Medical Center · OLVG

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, OLVG, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

  68. Radboud University Medical Center · Reinier de Graaf Hospital

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    Intensive Care, Reinier de Graaf Gasthuis, Delft, The Netherlands

  69. Reinier de Graaf Hospital · Spaarne Ziekenhuis · Spaarne Gasthuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Reinier de Graaf Gasthuis, Delft, The Netherlands

    Intensive Care, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem en Hoofddorp, The Netherlands

  70. Spaarne Ziekenhuis · St. Antonius Ziekenhuis · Spaarne Gasthuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem en Hoofddorp, The Netherlands

    Department of Internal Medicine and Intensive Care, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands

  71. Sint Franciscus Gasthuis · St. Antonius Ziekenhuis · Franciscus Vlietland

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Internal Medicine and Intensive Care, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis and Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

  72. University Medical Center Utrecht · Sint Franciscus Gasthuis · Franciscus Vlietland

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis and Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands

  73. University Medical Center Utrecht · VieCuri Medisch Centrum

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Department of Clinical Epidemiology, VieCuri Medisch Centrum, Venlo, The Netherlands

  74. VieCuri Medisch Centrum · Zuyderland Medisch Centrum

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Clinical Epidemiology, VieCuri Medisch Centrum, Venlo, The Netherlands

    Department of Pulmonology, Zuyderland MC, Heerlen, The Netherlands

  75. Albert Schweitzer Ziekenhuis · Zuyderland Medisch Centrum

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Pulmonology, Zuyderland MC, Heerlen, The Netherlands

    Intensive Care, Albert Schweitzerziekenhuis, Dordrecht, The Netherlands

  76. Albert Schweitzer Ziekenhuis · Antonius Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Albert Schweitzerziekenhuis, Dordrecht, The Netherlands

    Antonius Ziekenhuis Sneek, Sneek, The Netherlands

  77. Diakonessenhuis hospital · Antonius Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Antonius Ziekenhuis Sneek, Sneek, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, Diakonessenhuis Hospital, Utrecht, The Netherlands

  78. Diakonessenhuis hospital · IJsselland Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Diakonessenhuis Hospital, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    ICU, IJsselland Ziekenhuis, Capelle Aan Den IJssel, The Netherlands

  79. IJsselland Ziekenhuis · Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, IJsselland Ziekenhuis, Capelle Aan Den IJssel, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis, Den Bosch, The Netherlands

  80. Maasstad Ziekenhuis · Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis, Den Bosch, The Netherlands

    ICU, Maasstad Ziekenhuis, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

  81. Maasstad Ziekenhuis · Martini Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, Maasstad Ziekenhuis, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

    Martiniziekenhuis, Groningen, The Netherlands

  82. Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden · Martini Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Martiniziekenhuis, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Intensive Care, Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands

  83. Medisch Spectrum Twente · Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

  84. Medisch Spectrum Twente · Slingeland Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Department of Information Technology, Slingeland Ziekenhuis, Doetinchem, The Netherlands

  85. Slingeland Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Information Technology, Slingeland Ziekenhuis, Doetinchem, The Netherlands

    ICU, WZA, Assen, The Netherlands

  86. Ziekenhuis Groep Twente

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, WZA, Assen, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, Ziekenhuisgroep Twente, Almelo, The Netherlands

  87. Ziekenhuis Groep Twente · Admiraal De Ruyter Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Ziekenhuisgroep Twente, Almelo, The Netherlands

    Intensive Care, Adrz, Goes, The Netherlands

  88. Amphia Ziekenhuis · Admiraal De Ruyter Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Adrz, Goes, The Netherlands

    Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Amphia Ziekenhuis, Breda, The Netherlands

  89. Noordwest Ziekenhuisgroep · Amphia Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Amphia Ziekenhuis, Breda, The Netherlands

    Department of Pulmonology, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, The Netherlands

  90. Noordwest Ziekenhuisgroep

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Pulmonology, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Hospital St Jansdal, Harderwijk, The Netherlands

  91. Streekziekenhuis Koningin Beatrix

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Hospital St Jansdal, Harderwijk, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care, Streekziekenhuis Koningin Beatrix, Winterswijk, The Netherlands

  92. Streekziekenhuis Koningin Beatrix · Bravis Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care, Streekziekenhuis Koningin Beatrix, Winterswijk, The Netherlands

    Intensive Care, Bravis Ziekenhuis, Bergen Op Zoom en Roosendaal, The Netherlands

  93. Flevoziekenhuis · Bravis Ziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Bravis Ziekenhuis, Bergen Op Zoom en Roosendaal, The Netherlands

    ICU, Flevoziekenhuis, Almere, The Netherlands

  94. Maastricht University Medical Centre · Maastricht University · Flevoziekenhuis

    Affiliation as printed

    ICU, Flevoziekenhuis, Almere, The Netherlands

    MUMC+, University Maastricht, Maastricht, The Netherlands

  95. Maastricht University Medical Centre · Maastricht University · Treant Zorggroep

    Affiliation as printed

    MUMC+, University Maastricht, Maastricht, The Netherlands

    Intensive Care, Treant Zorggroep, Emmen, The Netherlands

  96. Treant Zorggroep · Tjongerschans

    Affiliation as printed

    Intensive Care, Treant Zorggroep, Emmen, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Afdeling Intensive Care, Ziekenhuis Tjongerschans, Heerenveen, The Netherlands

  97. Ziekenhuis Bethesda · Tjongerschans

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Afdeling Intensive Care, Ziekenhuis Tjongerschans, Heerenveen, The Netherlands

    Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Het Van Weel-Bethesda Ziekenhuis, Dirksland, The Netherlands

Cited by 37 stored of 39

Cited by patents worldwide 1 (Lens.org)

References 33