Predictors for extubation failure in COVID-19 patients using a machine learning approach
Critical Care, vol. 25, pp. 448
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Determining the optimal timing for extubation can be challenging in the intensive care. In this study, we aim to identify predictors for extubation failure in critically ill patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We used highly granular data from 3464 adult critically ill COVID patients in the multicenter Dutch Data Warehouse, including demographics, clinical observations, medications, fluid balance, laboratory values, vital signs, and data from life support devices. All intubated patients with at least one extubation attempt were eligible for analysis. Transferred patients, patients admitted for less than 24 h, and patients still admitted at the time of data extraction were excluded. Potential predictors were selected by a team of intensive care physicians. The primary and secondary outcomes were extubation without reintubation or death within the next 7 days and within 48 h, respectively. We trained and validated multiple machine learning algorithms using fivefold nested cross-validation. Predictor importance was estimated using Shapley additive explanations, while cutoff values for the relative probability of failed extubation were estimated through partial dependence plots. RESULTS: A total of 883 patients were included in the model derivation. The reintubation rate was 13.4% within 48 h and 18.9% at day 7, with a mortality rate of 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. The grandient-boost model performed best (area under the curve of 0.70) and was used to calculate predictor importance. Ventilatory characteristics and settings were the most important predictors. More specifically, a controlled mode duration longer than 4 days, a last fraction of inspired oxygen higher than 35%, a mean tidal volume per kg ideal body weight above 8 ml/kg in the day before extubation, and a shorter duration in assisted mode (< 2 days) compared to their median values. Additionally, a higher C-reactive protein and leukocyte count, a lower thrombocyte count, a lower Glasgow coma scale and a lower body mass index compared to their medians were associated with extubation failure. CONCLUSION: The most important predictors for extubation failure in critically ill COVID-19 patients include ventilatory settings, inflammatory parameters, neurological status, and body mass index. These predictors should therefore be routinely captured in electronic health records.
Authors 97
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Lucas M. Fleuren corresponding
Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Affiliation as printed
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. l.fleuren@amsterdamumc.nl
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Affiliation as printed
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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University Medical Center Utrecht
Affiliation as printed
Department of Intensive Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
ICU, OLVG, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, St. Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
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Sint Franciscus Gasthuis · Franciscus Vlietland
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Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis and Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Radboud University Medical Center
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Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
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Amsterdam University Medical Centers
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Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Intensive Care, Bovenij Ziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Canisius-Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis
Affiliation as printed
Intensive Care, Canisius Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Intensive Care, Catharina Ziekenhuis Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
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Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis
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Department of Intensive Care, ETZ Tilburg, Tilburg, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Intensive Care, HagaZiekenhuis, Den Haag, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Intensive Care, Laurentius Ziekenhuis, Roermond, The Netherlands
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Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Intensive Care, Reinier de Graaf Gasthuis, Delft, The Netherlands
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Spaarne Ziekenhuis · Spaarne Gasthuis
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Intensive Care, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem en Hoofddorp, The Netherlands
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Intensive Care, VieCuri Medisch Centrum, Venlo, The Netherlands
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Intensive Care, Zuyderland MC, Heerlen, The Netherlands
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Department of Intensive Care, Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis, Den Bosch, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Intensive Care, Albert Schweitzerziekenhuis, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
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Medisch Centrum Haaglanden · Stichting Haaglanden Medisch Centrum
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ICU, Haaglanden Medisch Centrum, Den Haag, The Netherlands
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ICU, Maasstad Ziekenhuis Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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ICU, SEH, BWC, Martiniziekenhuis, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Intensive Care, Ziekenhuis Gelderse Vallei, Ede, The Netherlands
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Department of Intensive Care, Ziekenhuisgroep Twente, Almelo, The Netherlands
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Department of Intensive Care, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
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Department of Intensive Care, Ikazia Ziekenhuis Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Antonius Ziekenhuis Sneek, Sneek, The Netherlands
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ICU, IJsselland Ziekenhuis, Capelle Aan Den IJssel, The Netherlands
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ICU, WZA, Assen, The Netherlands
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Department of Intensive Care, Diakonessenhuis Hospital, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Department of Intensive Care, Adrz, Goes, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Amphia Ziekenhuis, Breda, The Netherlands
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Leiden University Medical Center
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Department of Intensive Care, LUMC, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
BigData Republic, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
, Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Pacmed, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Amsterdam University Medical Centers · University of Amsterdam
Affiliation as printed
Department of Neurology, Amsterdam UMC, Universiteit Van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Affiliation as printed
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Quantitative Data Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Affiliation as printed
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Affiliation as printed
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Canisius-Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis · Stichting Haaglanden Medisch Centrum
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Intensive Care, Canisius Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
Business Intelligence, Haaglanden MC, Den Haag, The Netherlands
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Amsterdam University Medical Centers · Stichting Haaglanden Medisch Centrum · University of Amsterdam
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Business Intelligence, Haaglanden MC, Den Haag, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Universiteit Van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Amsterdam University Medical Centers · University of Amsterdam
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Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Universiteit Van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, BovenIJ Ziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Intensive Care, BovenIJ Ziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Department of Anesthesiology, Pain Management and Intensive Care, Catharina Ziekenhuis Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
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Catharina Ziekenhuis · Erasmus MC
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Department of Anesthesiology, Pain Management and Intensive Care, Catharina Ziekenhuis Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Erasmus MC · Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis
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Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, ETZ Tilburg, Tilburg, The Netherlands
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Haga Hospital · Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis
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Department of Intensive Care, ETZ Tilburg, Tilburg, The Netherlands
Department of ICMT, Haga Ziekenhuis, Den Haag, The Netherlands
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Haga Hospital · Laurentius Ziekenhuis
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Department of ICMT, Haga Ziekenhuis, Den Haag, The Netherlands
Intensive Care, Laurentius Ziekenhuis, Roermond, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Intensive Care, Laurentius Ziekenhuis, Roermond, The Netherlands
ICU, OLVG, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Radboud University Medical Center · OLVG
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ICU, OLVG, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
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Radboud University Medical Center · Reinier de Graaf Hospital
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Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
Intensive Care, Reinier de Graaf Gasthuis, Delft, The Netherlands
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Reinier de Graaf Hospital · Spaarne Ziekenhuis · Spaarne Gasthuis
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Intensive Care, Reinier de Graaf Gasthuis, Delft, The Netherlands
Intensive Care, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem en Hoofddorp, The Netherlands
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Spaarne Ziekenhuis · St. Antonius Ziekenhuis · Spaarne Gasthuis
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Intensive Care, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem en Hoofddorp, The Netherlands
Department of Internal Medicine and Intensive Care, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
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Sint Franciscus Gasthuis · St. Antonius Ziekenhuis · Franciscus Vlietland
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Department of Internal Medicine and Intensive Care, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis and Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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University Medical Center Utrecht · Sint Franciscus Gasthuis · Franciscus Vlietland
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Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis and Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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University Medical Center Utrecht · VieCuri Medisch Centrum
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Department of Intensive Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Department of Clinical Epidemiology, VieCuri Medisch Centrum, Venlo, The Netherlands
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VieCuri Medisch Centrum · Zuyderland Medisch Centrum
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Department of Clinical Epidemiology, VieCuri Medisch Centrum, Venlo, The Netherlands
Department of Pulmonology, Zuyderland MC, Heerlen, The Netherlands
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Albert Schweitzer Ziekenhuis · Zuyderland Medisch Centrum
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Department of Pulmonology, Zuyderland MC, Heerlen, The Netherlands
Intensive Care, Albert Schweitzerziekenhuis, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
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Albert Schweitzer Ziekenhuis · Antonius Ziekenhuis
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Intensive Care, Albert Schweitzerziekenhuis, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
Antonius Ziekenhuis Sneek, Sneek, The Netherlands
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Diakonessenhuis hospital · Antonius Ziekenhuis
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Antonius Ziekenhuis Sneek, Sneek, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, Diakonessenhuis Hospital, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Diakonessenhuis hospital · IJsselland Ziekenhuis
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Department of Intensive Care, Diakonessenhuis Hospital, Utrecht, The Netherlands
ICU, IJsselland Ziekenhuis, Capelle Aan Den IJssel, The Netherlands
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IJsselland Ziekenhuis · Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis
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ICU, IJsselland Ziekenhuis, Capelle Aan Den IJssel, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis, Den Bosch, The Netherlands
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Maasstad Ziekenhuis · Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis
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Department of Intensive Care, Jeroen Bosch Ziekenhuis, Den Bosch, The Netherlands
ICU, Maasstad Ziekenhuis, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Maasstad Ziekenhuis · Martini Ziekenhuis
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ICU, Maasstad Ziekenhuis, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Martiniziekenhuis, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden · Martini Ziekenhuis
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Martiniziekenhuis, Groningen, The Netherlands
Intensive Care, Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands
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Medisch Spectrum Twente · Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden
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Intensive Care, Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
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Medisch Spectrum Twente · Slingeland Ziekenhuis
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Department of Intensive Care, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
Department of Information Technology, Slingeland Ziekenhuis, Doetinchem, The Netherlands
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Department of Information Technology, Slingeland Ziekenhuis, Doetinchem, The Netherlands
ICU, WZA, Assen, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
ICU, WZA, Assen, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, Ziekenhuisgroep Twente, Almelo, The Netherlands
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Ziekenhuis Groep Twente · Admiraal De Ruyter Ziekenhuis
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Department of Intensive Care, Ziekenhuisgroep Twente, Almelo, The Netherlands
Intensive Care, Adrz, Goes, The Netherlands
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Amphia Ziekenhuis · Admiraal De Ruyter Ziekenhuis
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Intensive Care, Adrz, Goes, The Netherlands
Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Amphia Ziekenhuis, Breda, The Netherlands
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Noordwest Ziekenhuisgroep · Amphia Ziekenhuis
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Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Amphia Ziekenhuis, Breda, The Netherlands
Department of Pulmonology, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Pulmonology, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Hospital St Jansdal, Harderwijk, The Netherlands
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Streekziekenhuis Koningin Beatrix
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Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Hospital St Jansdal, Harderwijk, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care, Streekziekenhuis Koningin Beatrix, Winterswijk, The Netherlands
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Streekziekenhuis Koningin Beatrix · Bravis Ziekenhuis
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Department of Intensive Care, Streekziekenhuis Koningin Beatrix, Winterswijk, The Netherlands
Intensive Care, Bravis Ziekenhuis, Bergen Op Zoom en Roosendaal, The Netherlands
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Flevoziekenhuis · Bravis Ziekenhuis
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Intensive Care, Bravis Ziekenhuis, Bergen Op Zoom en Roosendaal, The Netherlands
ICU, Flevoziekenhuis, Almere, The Netherlands
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Maastricht University Medical Centre · Maastricht University · Flevoziekenhuis
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ICU, Flevoziekenhuis, Almere, The Netherlands
MUMC+, University Maastricht, Maastricht, The Netherlands
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Maastricht University Medical Centre · Maastricht University · Treant Zorggroep
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MUMC+, University Maastricht, Maastricht, The Netherlands
Intensive Care, Treant Zorggroep, Emmen, The Netherlands
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Treant Zorggroep · Tjongerschans
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Intensive Care, Treant Zorggroep, Emmen, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Afdeling Intensive Care, Ziekenhuis Tjongerschans, Heerenveen, The Netherlands
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Ziekenhuis Bethesda · Tjongerschans
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Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Afdeling Intensive Care, Ziekenhuis Tjongerschans, Heerenveen, The Netherlands
Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Het Van Weel-Bethesda Ziekenhuis, Dirksland, The Netherlands
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Cited by patents worldwide 1 (Lens.org)
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System and Method Thereof for Establishing Extubation Prediction Using Machine Learning ModelUS20240394605A1 2024-11-28 Active