Using Value-Focused Thinking and Multicriteria Decision Making to Evaluate Energy Transition Alternatives

Decision Analysis, vol. 17, pp. 330–355

Abstract

The future transformation of the energy system is a contentious topic, involving a variety of conflicting opinions and interests. In order to structure and evaluate these opinions, we develop a decision-making process with professional stakeholders and energy experts. The aim of this process is to develop a common objective system for the energy transition and to evaluate four possible energy transition alternatives for Germany until 2030. We apply value-focused thinking to define and structure the objectives of the stakeholders and use multiattribute utility theory to evaluate the preferences of the stakeholders toward these objectives. The results show that 8 out of 11 stakeholders prefer the energy transition alternative with the highest climate protection ambitions. Only 3 stakeholders favor the pan-European alternative, where Germany’s power system is further integrated into the European energy system.

Authors 3

1. Tim Höfer Aachen Institute for Decision Research and Financial Services School of Business and Economics Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior E.ON Energy Research Center

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Decision Research and Financial Services, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, Germany;

   Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), E.ON Energy Research Center, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany;

2. Rüdiger von Nitzsch Aachen School of Business and Economics

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, Germany;

3. Reinhard Madlener Aachen Institute for Decision Research and Financial Services School of Business and Economics Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior E.ON Energy Research Center

   RWTH Aachen University · Norwegian University of Science and Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway

   Institute for Decision Research and Financial Services, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, Germany;

   Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), E.ON Energy Research Center, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany