Process-level uncertainties challenge system-level direct air capture assessments
Abstract
Abstract System-level assessments of direct air capture (DAC) commonly rely on individual process models, overlooking the influence of model choice on system-level conclusions. Here, we quantify this impact by integrating weather-dependent performance data from seven solid-sorbent DAC models into an otherwise consistent energy system framework. DAC representation is the largest source of variation in levelized CO2 capture cost, accounting for 43% of the observed variation across the climate-renewable archetypes considered compared with 16% for climate and 6% for renewable-resource configuration. Model-dependent cost differences exceed 1000 € tCO2-1 at individual locations. Different model representations can also reverse siting preferences, substantially alter cost-optimal system design, and determine whether future CO2 capture-cost targets are achieved. Our results further demonstrate how individual process-level assumptions can propagate through the assessment, resulting in a major source of system-level uncertainty. The harmonized DAC performance data developed here enable systematic comparison of alternative DAC representation in future system assessments.
Authors 20
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Henrik Wenzel corresponding
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Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Calgary
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Eindhoven University of Technology
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Department of Chemical Engineering and Chemistry, Eindhoven University of Technology
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Paul Scherrer Institute
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Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University
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ETH Zurich · Institute of Energy and Process Engineering
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Energy and Process Systems Engineering, Institute of Energy and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich
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Affiliation as printed
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Affiliation as printed
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Affiliation as printed
Forschungszentrum Jülich
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Affiliation as printed
Imperial College London
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University of Calgary
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ETH Zurich
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Affiliation as printed
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of Climate and Energy Systems
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Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia) · Saudi Aramco (United States)
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Life Cycle Assessment Group, Technology Strategy & Planning Department, Saudi Aramco
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Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Niklas V. von der Assen Aachen
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RWTH Aachen University
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Affiliation as printed
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University
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Affiliation as printed
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Affiliation as printed
Forschungszentrum Jülich