Beyond efficiency: disentangling structural and behavioral sufficiency in U.S. residential decarbonization pathways

Environmental Research Letters, vol. 21, pp. 194019

Abstract

Abstract Decarbonization strategies in the residential sector have largely focused on lowering the carbon intensity of energy supply and improving end-use efficiency. Sufficiency, defined as avoiding unnecessary energy demand while maintaining well-being, remains largely absent from national energy system analyses, obscuring the relative and combined roles of efficiency and sufficiency in reducing energy demand. Here, we disentangle the effects of structural and behavioral sufficiency on residential energy demand and emissions, and quantify their individual and combined effects alongside efficiency improvements and heating electrification. Using an integrated modeling framework that links U.S. housing stock turnover to hourly building energy demand, we find that floorspace expands by 55% from 2020 to 2050 under business-as-usual trends, increasing energy demand by 8%. Relative to this 2050 trajectory, efficiency and structural sufficiency reduce demand by 26% and 24%, and by 44% when combined. Adopting conservative, health-informed thermostat setpoints further reduces energy demand by 29%–44%. These results show that accounting for sufficiency changes the scale of residential energy demand reductions achievable under decarbonization pathways, highlighting the importance of how buildings are used alongside what is built in bringing the sector closer to deep decarbonization while maintaining household well-being.

Authors 5

1. Shuhaib Nawawi corresponding

   International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis · University of Michigan

   Affiliation as printed

   International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

   School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan

2. Parth Vaishnav

   University of Michigan

   Affiliation as printed

   School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan

3. Xiaoyang Zhong Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University · International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis · Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School · Tsinghua University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University

   Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University

   International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

4. Morgan R. Edwards

   University of Wisconsin–Madison

   Affiliation as printed

   La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin—Madison

   Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin—Madison

5. Alessio Mastrucci

   International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

   Affiliation as printed

   International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)