Electricity demand anomaly detection and forecasting: a hybrid framework for improved grid management

Technological Sustainability, pp. 1–24

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to develop a robust and interpretable forecasting framework for short-term electricity demand that supports sustainable energy demand management, particularly under conditions of demand volatility and unexpected events. Design/methodology/approach This study proposes a hybrid Prophet-XGBoost forecasting framework that combines a decomposable time-series model with machine learning–based residual learning. The model was validated using 425 days of operational data from the Taiwan Power Company, utilizing a 30-day out-of-sample test set to simulate real-world forecasting. Findings The hybrid model consistently improves upon the standalone Prophet baseline and remains highly competitive with standalone XGBoost. Anomaly detection identifies demand irregularities linked to exogenous shocks, such as national holidays, improving robustness and interpretability. Practical implications The framework offers energy utilities and system operators a practical decision-support tool for improving short-term load forecasting, anticipating demand shocks, and strengthening grid reliability. Originality/value This study contributes a decision-oriented hybrid forecasting framework that combines statistical interpretability with machine learning accuracy and explicit anomaly detection for energy sector management.

Authors 4

1. Rishan Adha Aachen Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior School of Business and Economics / E.ON Energy Research Center

   University of Mataram · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Mataram , ,

   Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), School of Business and Economics / E.ON Energy Research Center, RWTH Aachen University , ,

2. Fety Widianti Aptasari

   University of Mataram

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Mataram , ,

3. Ni Wayan Adelia Mutiara Asri

   University of Mataram

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Mataram , ,

4. Budiman Budiman

   University of Mataram

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Mataram , ,