Forecasting-informed foreign policy decision-making: the case of jus ad vim

International Affairs, vol. 102, pp. 1569–1586

Abstract

Abstract How should decisions be made regarding instances in which force-short-of-war might be used? This article argues that such decisions can and should be improved by drawing on empirical social science findings on forecasting from scholars such as Philip Tetlock. Integrating evidence-based forecasting methods into decision-making procedures can help counter cognitive biases that can lead to suboptimal decisions. The article illustrates the argument with examples, including the United States’ arming rebels and conducting limited strikes in Syria during the civil war in that country, and shows how such forecasting is useful to assess whether a key jus ad vim principle, that of escalation, would likely be met. Furthermore, including forecasting in decision-making may decrease the risk of just war theory principles in general—and jus ad vim principles specifically—being abused by powerful actors, because providing accurate forecasts would provide the probability of failure of jus ad vim, and other, policy options.

Authors 1

1. Eamon Aloyo corresponding Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University Institute of Security and Global Affairs,