Astrophysical Sensitivity Projections for the IceCube Upgrade
Abstract
Embedded in the South Pole's glacial ice, IceCube detects neutrino-induced Cherenkov light using an array of digital optical modules equipped with single photomultiplier tubes (PMTs). The new extension installed in 2025/2026, the IceCube Upgrade, introduces densely instrumented multi-PMT optical modules within the existing infill array known as IceCube DeepCore. It is expected to enhance sensitivity in the GeV regime, with commissioning of the detector expected to be complete by the end of 2026. We present the projected sensitivities of the IceCube Upgrade for three key analyses: neutrino transient searches, steady emission from point sources such as NGC 1068, and diffuse emission from the Milky Way. These case studies represent direct extensions of current IceCube analyses. Using new Monte Carlo datasets, we demonstrate that the IceCube Upgrade achieves order-of-magnitude improvement in sensitivity at low energies ($\lesssim 10$ GeV) for time-dependent sources across short timescales. Conversely, for time-independent searches, the relative impact of the IceCube Upgrade's low-energy data is diluted by the decade-long accumulation of high-energy archival data. Nevertheless, we project significant improvements for soft-spectrum sources especially across the southern sky, driven by the IceCube Upgrade's superior background rejection capabilities. The improved sensitivity at low energies for both transient and steady sources will open up an expanded discovery window for IceCube in the GeV band over the next decade.
Authors 100
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Department of Physics , Loyola University Chicago , Chicago , IL 60660 , USA
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The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Dept. of Physics and Astronomy , University of Canterbury , Private Bag 4800 , Christchurch , New Zealand
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Université Libre de Bruxelles , Science Faculty CP230 , B-1050 Brussels , Belgium
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Niels Bohr Institute , University of Copenhagen , DK-2100 Copenhagen , Denmark
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Dept. of Physics , TU Dortmund University , D-44221 Dortmund , Germany
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The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Dept. of Physics and Astronomy , Michigan State University , East Lansing , MI 48824 , USA
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The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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University of California, Irvine
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Dept. of Physics and Astronomy , University of California , Irvine , CA 92697 , USA
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The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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University of California, Berkeley
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Dept. of Physics , University of California , Berkeley , CA 94720 , USA
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Dept. of Astronomy , Ohio State University , Columbus , OH 43210 , USA
Dept. of Physics and Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics , Ohio State University , Columbus , OH 43210 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
Fakultät für Physik & Astronomie , Ruhr-Universität Bochum , D-44780 Bochum , Germany
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III. Physikalisches Institut , RWTH Aachen University , D-52056 Aachen , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Technical University of Munich
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Physik-department , Technische Universität München , D-85748 Garching , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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University of Maryland, College Park
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Dept. of Physics , University of Maryland , College Park , MD 20742 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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University of Maryland, College Park
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Dept. of Physics , University of Maryland , College Park , MD 20742 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Institute for Astroparticle Physics , D-76021 Karlsruhe , Germany
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Department of Physics and Laboratory for Particle Physics and Cosmology , Harvard University , Cambridge , MA 02138 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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University of Maryland, College Park
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Dept. of Physics , University of Maryland , College Park , MD 20742 , USA
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Dept. of Physics, Engineering Physics, and Astronomy , Queen's University , Kingston , ON K7L 3N6 , Canada
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Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
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Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics , Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg , D-91058 Erlangen , Germany
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Department of Physics , University of Adelaide , Adelaide , 5005 , Australia
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The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Department of Physics and Laboratory for Particle Physics and Cosmology , Harvard University , Cambridge , MA 02138 , USA
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University of Nevada, Las Vegas · University of Wisconsin–Madison · University of Kansas · Mercer University · UCLouvain
Affiliation as printed
Department of Physics & Astronomy , University of Nevada , Las Vegas , NV 89154 , USA
Nevada Center for Astrophysics , University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA 35 Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA 36 UCLouvain, Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology, CP3, Chemin du Cyclotron 2, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium 37 Department of Physics, Mercer University, Macon, GA 31207-0001, USA 38 Dept. of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison
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Affiliation as printed
Université Libre de Bruxelles , Science Faculty CP230 , B-1050 Brussels , Belgium
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Affiliation as printed
Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics , Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg , D-91058 Erlangen , Germany
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University of Maryland, College Park
Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Physics , University of Maryland , College Park , MD 20742 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Astronomy , Ohio State University , Columbus , OH 43210 , USA
Dept. of Physics and Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics , Ohio State University , Columbus , OH 43210 , USA
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Dept. of Physics , Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cambridge , MA 02139 , USA
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The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) , Dienst ELEM , B-1050 Brussels , Belgium
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Physics and Laboratory for Particle Physics and Cosmology , Harvard University , Cambridge , MA 02138 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
Université Libre de Bruxelles , Science Faculty CP230 , B-1050 Brussels , Belgium
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Affiliation as printed
III. Physikalisches Institut , RWTH Aachen University , D-52056 Aachen , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) , Dienst ELEM , B-1050 Brussels , Belgium
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Physics and Astronomy , Michigan State University , East Lansing , MI 48824 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Physics and Astronomy , Michigan State University , East Lansing , MI 48824 , USA
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University of Nevada, Las Vegas · University of Wisconsin–Madison · University of Kansas · Mercer University · UCLouvain
Affiliation as printed
Department of Physics & Astronomy , University of Nevada , Las Vegas , NV 89154 , USA
Nevada Center for Astrophysics , University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA 35 Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA 36 UCLouvain, Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology, CP3, Chemin du Cyclotron 2, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium 37 Department of Physics, Mercer University, Macon, GA 31207-0001, USA 38 Dept. of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Affiliation as printed
Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics , Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg , D-91058 Erlangen , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
III. Physikalisches Institut , RWTH Aachen University , D-52056 Aachen , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Physics , University of Alberta , Edmonton , Alberta , T6G 2E1 , Canada
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Technical University of Munich
Affiliation as printed
Physik-department , Technische Universität München , D-85748 Garching , Germany
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Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Affiliation as printed
Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics , Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg , D-91058 Erlangen , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Physics and Astronomy , University of Gent , B-9000 Gent , Belgium
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Technical University of Munich
Affiliation as printed
Physik-department , Technische Universität München , D-85748 Garching , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Affiliation as printed
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Institute for Astroparticle Physics , D-76021 Karlsruhe , Germany
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Institute of Experimental Particle Physics , D-76021 Karlsruhe , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Physics and Laboratory for Particle Physics and Cosmology , Harvard University , Cambridge , MA 02138 , USA
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University of Maryland, College Park
Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Physics , University of Maryland , College Park , MD 20742 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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University of Maryland, College Park
Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Physics , University of Maryland , College Park , MD 20742 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
Dept. of Physics and
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Dept. of Physics , TU Dortmund University , D-44221 Dortmund , Germany
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Southern University and Agricultural and Mechanical College
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Dept. of Physics , Southern University , Baton Rouge , LA 70813 , USA
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
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Institut für Physik , Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , D-12489 Berlin , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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Affiliation as printed
Fakultät für Physik & Astronomie , Ruhr-Universität Bochum , D-44780 Bochum , Germany
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Affiliation as printed
The International Center for Hadron Astrophysics , Chiba University , Chiba 263-8522 , Japan
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