Robust policy evaluation in material flow analysis under deep uncertainty

Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 30, pp. 2489–2503

Abstract

Abstract This study proposes a novel framework for robust policy evaluation in material flow analysis (MFA) under deep uncertainty. It is motivated by our observation that, under data scarcity, conventional uncertainty analysis methods may overstate the available knowledge by attempting to characterize uncertainty beyond what limited empirical evidence can support. We propose a shift away from identifying the most probable policy outcomes and their associated uncertainty, toward identifying policies that remain reliable despite uncertainty. This is achieved by integrating MFA with exploratory modeling and analysis, which (i) characterizes broad, plausible uncertainty ranges to incorporate extreme scenarios and (ii) assesses policy performance across multiple robustness metrics to reflect diverse perspectives. In addition, the study presents methodological suggestions for handling the sum-to-one constraint of transfer coefficients, including a constrained elicitation procedure for defining uncertainty bounds, a sampling approach that preserves the sum-to-one property without requiring normalization, and a vulnerability analysis method that remains applicable despite this constraint. An illustrative case study demonstrates the operationalization of the framework and highlights its strengths and limitations under simplified conditions. Further research is needed to refine the methodology and enable a systematic application in practice.

Authors 5

1. Norbert Weijenberg Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University · Delft University of Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management (TPM), TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands

   Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands

2. Willem L. Auping

   Delft University of Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management (TPM), TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands

3. Sietske Lensen

   Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research

   Affiliation as printed

   Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Princetonlaan 8, 3584 CB, Utrecht, The Netherlands

4. Anna Schwarz

   Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research

   Affiliation as printed

   LCA Department - Value Chain Team, CE Delft, Oude Delft 180, 2611 HH, Delft, The Netherlands

   Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Princetonlaan 8, 3584 CB, Utrecht, The Netherlands

5. Nils Thonemann corresponding Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands