A Lightweight Solar Activity Prediction Model compatible with CubeSat

Abstract

The prediction of Solar Activity is critical in the context of space weather and associated technological implications. Many methods have been proposed towards this and for identifying precursors of solar activity. Primarily, only whole 2D magnetograms have been used for this purpose. While physics-based models are important, we show that using light-curves reduces the dimensionality of the problem and provide interesting and useful results. Using data from Chandrayaan-2’s XSM from the ISSDC archive and GOES from NCEI, prediction of flares, background and event timing accurate to 99% has been demonstrated.The data-driven nature of the model allows it to be applied on other wavelengths such as EUV. We aim to extend the testing and applications to a wider range of data from other missions like PROBA-3 and Aditya-L1 and from others stellar sources. Such input from Kepler, TESS and in preparation for PLATO could contribute towards habitability studies as well. Magnetogram (3D) inputs will be integrated to create a comprehensive model, and comparison of these with ground-based white light and H-alpha images conducted.We also intend concept development of a CubeSat bus (3 or 6 U) for imaging and monitoring. Upon comparison of the main model (LSTM) with a lighter-weight and more resource-efficient network (GRU), we find the GRU provides comparable predictions to the LSTM and thus would be more amenable with CubeSat applications and parts of onboard processing where resource usage becomes critical.

Authors 5

1. Snehasri Ravishankar

   International Space University · LUNEX

   Affiliation as printed

   International Space University, Strasbourg 67400, France

   LUNEX EuroMoonMars

2. Ballekere Thippeswamy Ravishankar

   U. R. Rao Satellite Centre

   Affiliation as printed

   Space Astronomy Group, U. R. Rao Satellite Centre, ISITE campus, Bangalore 560037, India

3. M. Sudhakar

   U. R. Rao Satellite Centre

   Affiliation as printed

   Space Astronomy Group, U. R. Rao Satellite Centre, ISITE campus, Bangalore 560037, India

4. Ramson Munyaradzi Nyamukondiwa

   International Space University

   Affiliation as printed

   International Space University, Strasbourg 67400, France

5. Bernard H. Foing corresponding Aachen Leiden U

   Leiden University · LUNEX

   Affiliation as printed

   LUNEX EuroMoonMars

   Leiden U, Riga Latvia U , COSPAR PEX & SCB