UNCASExt – A systematic computational framework for uncertainty propagation and scope consistency in absolute environmental sustainability assessments (AESA)

Sustainable Production and Consumption, vol. 69, pp. 394–415

Abstract

Absolute environmental sustainability assessment (AESA) has gained increasing attention in environmental research and policymaking. However, its reliability is challenged by several sources of uncertainty that remain insufficiently accounted for, as well as by scope inconsistencies within the absolute sustainability ratio (ASR), which compares estimated environmental burdens with allocated carrying capacities for a given human activity. This work introduces UNCASExt , an extension of the UNCASE framework for systematically propagating uncertainty and ensuring scope consistency in AESA, together with a supporting open-source Python package, pyaesa . At country and sector levels, the computational framework formalizes allocation procedures that match the scope of allocated carrying capacities with that of estimated environmental burdens across three dimensions: impact pathway modeling; production-based versus consumption-based accounting; business-to-consumer (B2C) versus business-to-business (B2B) activities. It also incorporates temporal dynamics, supporting both retrospective and prospective assessments with either static steady-state or dynamic carrying capacities, including greenhouse gas budgets from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway transition scenarios. The framework is applied to a case study of electricity consumption in France over the period 2019–2060. The results show that mismatches between the functional units of estimated environmental burdens and allocated carrying capacities can lead to substantial underallocation, with a median factor of 4.6 × across all available sector-region pairs in the multi-regional input–output table EXIOBASE 3.10.2. Overall, UNCASExt and pyaesa provide a scalable solution to support AESA harmonization and a versatile way forward to bridge the gap between methodological guidelines and practical application.

Authors 9

1. Erwan Ike de Bantel corresponding
2. Thibault Pirson

   UCLouvain

   Affiliation as printed

   Université catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

3. Gonzalo Puig-Samper

   Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, 5 Avenue des Hauts-Fourneaux, Esch-sur-Alzette, L-4362, Luxembourg

4. Jan Marcus Hartmann Aachen Institute of Technical Thermodynamics

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 8, 52062 Aachen, Germany

5. David Bol

   UCLouvain

   Affiliation as printed

   Université catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

6. Ghada Bouillass

   Université Paris-Saclay · CentraleSupélec · Laboratoire Génie Industriel

   Affiliation as printed

   Université Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec, Laboratoire Genie Industriel, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France

7. Bernard Yannou

   Université Paris-Saclay · CentraleSupélec · Laboratoire Génie Industriel

   Affiliation as printed

   Université Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec, Laboratoire Genie Industriel, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France

8. Marija Jankovic

   Université Paris-Saclay · CentraleSupélec · Laboratoire Génie Industriel

   Affiliation as printed

   Université Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec, Laboratoire Genie Industriel, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France

9. Michael Zwicky Hauschild

   Technical University of Denmark

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Absolute Sustainability, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark

   Section for Quantitative Sustainability Assessment, Department of Environmental and Resource Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark