Rethinking Tipping Points in Spatial Ecosystems

The American Naturalist, vol. 207, pp. 483–502

Abstract

AbstractTipping point theory has garnered substantial attention over recent decades. It predicts abrupt and often irreversible transitions from one ecosystem state to an alternative state. However, ecosystem models that predict tipping typically neglect spatial dynamics. Recent studies reveal that incorporating spatial dynamics may enable ecosystems to evade tipping predicted by nonspatial models. Here, we use a dryland and a savanna-forest model to synthesize mechanisms by which spatial processes can alter the theory of tipping. We further propose that the underlying drivers of positive feedback leading to alternative stable states may provide insight into the tipping evasion mechanisms most relevant to a specific ecosystem. For instance, while positive feedbacks may arise in drylands from direct self-facilitation, such as enhancing the uptake of a limiting resource, at the savanna-forest boundary, it may arise from mutual inhibition between two ecosystem components. In the former case ecosystems can evade tipping by forming self-organized patterns, whereas in the latter the presence of environmental heterogeneity may be required. Our study highlights that deepening our understanding of how ecological feedbacks connect to tipping evasion mechanisms is crucial to formulate better strategies to increase ecosystem resilience.

Authors 6

1. Swarnendu Banerjee

   Utrecht University · University of Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   1. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands

   2. Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

   3. Dutch Institute for Emergent Phenomena, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

   4. Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, Korteweg-de Vries Institute for Mathematics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

2. Mara Baudena

   Utrecht University · Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate · National Research Council

   Affiliation as printed

   1. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands

   2. Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

   5. Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council (CNR-ISAC), 10133 Torino, Italy

   6. National Biodiversity Future Center, 90133 Palermo, Italy

3. Paul Carter

   University of California, Irvine

   Affiliation as printed

   7. Department of Mathematics, University of California, Irvine, California 92697

4. Robbin Bastiaansen

   Utrecht University

   Affiliation as printed

   2. Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

   8. Mathematical Institute, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands

   9. Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

5. Arjen Doelman Aachen 10. Mathematical Institute

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   10. Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands

6. Max Rietkerk

   Utrecht University

   Affiliation as printed

   1. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands