Linking Individual Performance to Density‐Dependent Population Dynamics to Understand Temperature‐Mediated Genotype Coexistence

Ecology Letters, vol. 28, pp. e70214

Abstract

The persistence of local populations exposed to climate change depends on their adaptive potential and on the ability of local individuals to compete with migrating conspecifics tracking environmental shifts. Modern coexistence theory (MCT) offers a framework for studying such competitive interactions among genotypes. However, MCT often focuses on emerging population-level outcomes, aggregating over the underlying individual-level interactions. We present a cross-scale application of MCT, combining it with an Integral Projection Model (IPM), explicitly connecting individual performance to population-level dynamics. We parameterise our model using experimental data on competing Daphnia genotypes from two latitudes. Consistent with observations, our model shows that higher temperatures increase the likelihood of competitive exclusion of Northern genotypes by Southern genotypes. Moreover, it reveals latitudinal variation in neonate sex ratios as a driver of temperature-dependent evolutionary shifts. By identifying vital rates underlying population-level competitive outcomes, our approach preserves the straightforward theoretical interpretability of MCT, while providing enhanced process-level resolution through IPMs.

Authors 10

1. Marjolein Bruijning corresponding

   University of Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam the Netherlands

2. Luc De Meester

   Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries · Freie Universität Berlin · KU Leuven

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Biology Freie Universität Berlin Berlin Germany

   Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution and Conservation KU Leuven Leuven Belgium

   Leibniz Institüt für Gewasserökologie Und Binnenfischerei (IGB) Berlin Germany

3. Marco D. Visser Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML) Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Environmental Sciences Leiden University Leiden the Netherlands

4. Erlend I. F. Fossen

   Norwegian University of Science and Technology · CICERO Center for International Climate Research

   Affiliation as printed

   CICERO Center for International Climate Research Oslo Norway

   Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway

5. Héléne Vanvelk

   KU Leuven

   Affiliation as printed

   Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution and Conservation KU Leuven Leuven Belgium

6. Joost A. M. Raeymaekers

   Nord University

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Biosciences and Aquaculture Nord University Bodø Norway

7. Lynn Govaert

   Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries · KU Leuven

   Affiliation as printed

   Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution and Conservation KU Leuven Leuven Belgium

   Leibniz Institüt für Gewasserökologie Und Binnenfischerei (IGB) Berlin Germany

8. Kristien I. Brans

   Vrije Universiteit Brussel · KU Leuven

   Affiliation as printed

   Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution and Conservation KU Leuven Leuven Belgium

   Research Group Ecology, Evolution and Genetics (bDIV) Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels Belgium

9. Sigurd Einum

   Norwegian University of Science and Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim Norway

10. Eelke Jongejans

    Radboud University Nijmegen · Netherlands Institute of Ecology

    Affiliation as printed

    Animal Ecology Netherlands Institute of Ecology Wageningen the Netherlands

    Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences Radboud University Nijmegen the Netherlands