Revealing the interplay between decarbonisation, circularity, and cost-effectiveness in building energy renovation

Nature Communications, vol. 16, pp. 7153

Abstract

Building energy renovation mitigates carbon emissions but often increases material demand and financial costs. This work addresses this problem by investigating the carbon, material, and economic footprints of various renovation scenarios in the Dutch residential sector from 2015 to 2050. Results show that, compared to the baseline, façade refurbishment could lower cumulative lifecycle emissions by up to 0.3%, while raising material use by 21–25% and costs by 2–6%. Sensitivity analysis indicates that refurbishing the heating system offers greater potential for reducing carbon emissions. Rebuilding could cut emissions by up to 17% under an ambitious energy transition, though this would triple material use and construction costs. Circularity strategies could offset up to 89% of the material footprint and reduce carbon emissions by up to 23%. Nonetheless, considerable cost increases from renovations remain inevitable, even with advanced material circulation systems, suggesting circular renovation strategies with enhanced incentives as concerted action. This study shows that while deep building renovation could reduce carbon emissions, it increases material use and costs. Circular strategies help reduce primary material demand, but incentives are needed to make renovation economically viable.

Authors 10

1. Chunbo Zhang Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University · University College London

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK

   Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

2. Mingming Hu corresponding Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands. hu@cml.leidenuniv.nl

3. Benjamin Sprecher Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University · Delft University of Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

   Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

4. Romain Sacchi

   Paul Scherrer Institute

   Affiliation as printed

   Technology Assessment Group, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland

5. Xining Yang Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

6. Shiyu Yang

   Xi'an Jiaotong University

   Affiliation as printed

   School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'An, Shanxi, China

7. Teun Johannes Verhagen Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University · Delft University of Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

   Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

8. Chi Zhang Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University · University College London

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK

   Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

9. Bernhard R.P. Steubing Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

10. Arnold Tukker corresponding Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

    Leiden University · Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research

    Affiliation as printed

    Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands. tukker@cml.leidenuniv.nl

    Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research TNO, Den Haag, Netherlands. tukker@cml.leidenuniv.nl