Developing and Validating Species Distribution Models for Wetland Plants Across Europe

Ecology and Evolution, vol. 15, pp. e71157

Abstract

Drainage, agricultural conversion, and climate change threaten wetlands and their unique biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) can help to identify effective conservation measures. However, existing SDMs for wetland plants are often geographically limited, miss variables representing hydrological conditions, and neglect moss species, essential to many wetlands. Here, we developed and validated SDMs for 265 vascular plant and moss species characteristic of European wetlands, using environmental variables representing climate, soil, hydrology, and anthropogenic pressures. We validated the spatial predictions of the SDMs through cross-validation and against independent data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Further, we validated the niche optima of the species, as obtained from the modelled species response curves, with empirical niche optima. The spatial validation revealed good predictive power of the SDMs, especially for diagnostic mosses, for which we obtained median cross-validated values of the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) of 0.93 and 0.73, respectively, and a median true positive rate (TPR) based on GBIF records of 0.77. SDMs of diagnostic vascular plants performed well, too, with median AUC, TSS, and TPR of 0.91, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively. SDMs of non-diagnostic plants had the lowest performance, with median AUC, TSS, and TPR values of 0.84, 0.53, and 0.62, respectively. Correlations between modelled and empirical niche optima were typically in the expected direction. Climate variables, particularly the mean temperature of the coldest month, were the strongest predictors of species occurrence. At the same time, groundwater table depth was a significant predictor for diagnostic vascular plants but not for mosses. We concluded that our SDMs are suitable for predicting broad-scale patterns of wetland plant species distributions as governed by climatic conditions. Alternative or additional variables or a different modelling approach might be needed to represent better the local heterogeneity in the hydrological conditions of wetlands.

Authors 9

1. Ojaswi Sumbh corresponding

   Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

   Affiliation as printed

   PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency The Hague the Netherlands

2. Marjon Hellegers

   Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency · Radboud University Nijmegen

   Affiliation as printed

   PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency The Hague the Netherlands

   Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences Radboud University Nijmegen the Netherlands

3. Valerio Barbarossa Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML) Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands

   Leiden University · Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Environmental Sciences Leiden University Leiden the Netherlands

   PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency The Hague the Netherlands

4. Renata Ćušterevska

   Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Institute of Biology University of Ss. Cyril and Methodius Skopje Republic of Macedonia

5. Borja Jiménez‐Alfaro

   Universidad de Oviedo

   Affiliation as printed

   Joint Biodiversity Research Institute University of Oviedo Oviedo Asturias Spain

6. Łukasz Kozub

   University of Warsaw

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Ecology and Environmental Protection, Faculty of Biology, Institute of Environmental Biology University of Warsaw Warsaw Poland

7. Francesca Napoleone

   Sapienza University of Rome

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Environmental Biology Sapienza University of Rome Rome Italy

8. Zvjezdana Stančić

   University of Zagreb

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Geotechnical Engineering University of Zagreb Varaždin Croatia

9. Aafke M. Schipper

   Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency · Radboud University Nijmegen

   Affiliation as printed

   PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency The Hague the Netherlands

   Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences Radboud University Nijmegen the Netherlands