EU food system transformations

Abstract

The global food system is responsible for up to a third of greenhouse gas emissions and is a major cause of biodiversity loss. A low-emission food system transition towards more plant-rich diets is urgently needed in the EU to mitigate environmental crises including climate change. Linking global physical input-output models with public agro-economic data reveals that animal-sourced food (ASF) dominates EU agriculture, consuming the majority of agricultural land, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies, fixed assets, and farm employment, while contributing disproportionally to greenhouse gas emissions, net farm profits, and caloric intake. ASFs account for most EU food-related greenhouse gas emissions (84%) yet provide only a fraction of the dietary calories (35%) and proteins (65%), highlighting their inefficiency.Dietary shifts away from ASFs would free up significant agricultural land and CAP subsidies, unlocking opportunities for alternative land uses, such as rewilding, and CAP budget redirection to support plant-based alternatives. However, transitioning to more plant-rich diets could also lead to the stranding of ASF-related assets, currently evaluated at €258 billion (78% of all agricultural fixed assets). Our findings suggest that as agricultural assets depreciate over time, a systemic phase-out of ASF-related assets without further investments, would leave minimal residual value and limit the risk of stranded assets.

Authors 3

1. Anniek J. Kortleve corresponding Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University, Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Industrial Ecology, Leiden, Netherlands

2. José Manuel Mogollón corresponding Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University, Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Industrial Ecology, Leiden, Netherlands

3. Paul Behrens Aachen Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)

   Leiden University · University of Oxford

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University, Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Industrial Ecology, Leiden, Netherlands

   University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Oxford, United Kingdom