A statistical modelling approach for determining the cause of reported respiratory syndromes from internet-based participatory surveillance when influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 are co-circulating

PLOS Digital Health, vol. 3, pp. e0000655

Abstract

Symptom-only case definitions are insufficient to discriminate COVID-like illness from acute respiratory infection (ARI) or influenza-like illness (ILI), due to the overlap in case definitions. Our objective was to develop a statistical method that does not rely on case definitions to determine the contribution of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 to the ARI burden during periods when both viruses are circulating. Data sources used for testing the approach were weekly ARI syndrome reports from the Infectieradar participatory syndromic surveillance system during the analysis period (the first 25 weeks of 2022, in which SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus co-circulated in the Netherlands) and data from virologically tested ARI (including ILI) patients who consulted a general practitioner in the same period. Estimation of the proportions of ARI attributable to influenza virus, SARS-CoV-2, or another cause was framed as an inference problem, through which all data sources are combined within a Bayesian framework to infer the weekly numbers of ARI reports attributable to each cause. Posterior distributions for the attribution proportions were obtained using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods. Application of the approach to the example data sources indicated that, of the total ARI reports (total of 11,312; weekly mean of 452) during the analysis period, the model attributed 35.4% (95% CrI: 29.2-40.0%) and 27.0% (95% CrI: 19.3-35.2%) to influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2, respectively. The proposed statistical model allows the attribution of respiratory syndrome reports from participatory surveillance to either influenza virus or SARS-CoV-2 infection in periods when both viruses are circulating, but comparability of the participatory surveillance and virologically tested populations is important. Portability for use by other countries with established participatory respiratory surveillance systems is an asset.

Authors 8

1. Scott McDonald

   National Institute for Public Health and the Environment

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands

2. Albert Jan van Hoek

   National Institute for Public Health and the Environment

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands

3. Daniela Paolotti corresponding

   Institute for Scientific Interchange

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Torino, Italy

4. Mariëtte Hooiveld
   Affiliation as printed

   Nivel, Utrecht, the Netherlands

5. Adam Meijer

   National Institute for Public Health and the Environment

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands

6. Marit de Lange

   National Institute for Public Health and the Environment

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands

7. Arianne B. van Gageldonk‐Lafeber Aachen Department of Biomedical Data Sciences

   Leiden University Medical Center · National Institute for Public Health and the Environment

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands

   Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands

8. Jacco Wallinga Aachen Department of Biomedical Data Sciences

   Leiden University Medical Center · National Institute for Public Health and the Environment

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands

   Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands