Incomplete Objectives in Decision Making: How Omitting Objectives Affects Identifying the Most Promising Alternative

Operations Research Forum, vol. 5

Abstract

Abstract Research has shown that decision-makers omit a significant number of their objectives when making a decision. This study examines the consequences of incomplete objectives on decision making, i.e., how does omitting objectives affect identifying the most promising alternative? We investigate this question using a dataset of 945 observed decisions. These decisions were developed by students using the decision-skills and training tool entscheidungsnavi.com. The tool guides students in a step-by-step process based on value-focused thinking, multi-attribute utility theory, and debiasing methods. Results show that omitting objectives significantly reduces the chances of identifying the most promising alternative. Hence, neglecting only 20% of the objectives is sufficient to mislead more than one in four decisions. We have found three factors that influence this risk of misidentifying the most promising alternative: (1) the weight of the omitted objectives; (2) the consensus on the best alternative across all objectives; and (3) the consensus on the ranking of all alternatives across all objectives.

Authors 3

1. Sara J. M. Abdeen Aachen Chair of Decision Theory and Financial Services

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair of Decision Theory and Financial Services, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

2. Florian Methling corresponding Aachen Chair of Decision Theory and Financial Services

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair of Decision Theory and Financial Services, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

3. Rüdiger von Nitzsch Aachen Chair of Decision Theory and Financial Services

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair of Decision Theory and Financial Services, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany