What Drives Support for Armed Humanitarian Intervention? Experimental Evidence From Dutch Citizens on International Law and Probability of Success

Research & Politics, vol. 11

Abstract

Under what conditions do individuals support armed humanitarian intervention (AHI) in situations where mass atrocities are ongoing? This article tests several hypotheses about support for AHIs to isolate and interact two potential drivers: international law and the probability of success. It leverages an original, pre-registered experiment from a (quota) representative sample of over 1500 Dutch citizens. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that support for AHI increases when an action is authorized by the UN Security Council (UNSC) and has a high (80%) chance of success. But the Dutch remain supportive of AHI in situations of mass atrocities even when AHI has a low chance of success (20%). Importantly, we find that the chance of success does not affect the support for AHIs as much as the international law does. This suggests that in similar situations legal and procedural reasons may influence public opinion more than a logic of consequences.

Authors 3

1. Honorata Mazepus corresponding Aachen Institute of Security and Global Affairs

   Leiden University · University of Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

   Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

2. Eamon Aloyo Aachen Institute of Security and Global Affairs

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

3. Natália Kubalová Aachen Institute of Political Science Institute of Security and Global Affairs

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Political Science, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands

   Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands