The methane imperative
Frontiers in Science, vol. 2
Abstract
Anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions increases from the period 1850–1900 until 2019 are responsible for around 65% as much warming as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has caused to date, and large reductions in methane emissions are required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. However, methane emissions have been increasing rapidly since ~2006. This study shows that emissions are expected to continue to increase over the remainder of the 2020s if no greater action is taken and that increases in atmospheric methane are thus far outpacing projected growth rates. This increase has important implications for reaching net zero CO 2 targets: every 50 Mt CH 4 of the sustained large cuts envisioned under low-warming scenarios that are not realized would eliminate about 150 Gt of the remaining CO 2 budget. Targeted methane reductions are therefore a critical component alongside decarbonization to minimize global warming. We describe additional linkages between methane mitigation options and CO 2 , especially via land use, as well as their respective climate impacts and associated metrics. We explain why a net zero target specifically for methane is neither necessary nor plausible. Analyses show where reductions are most feasible at the national and sectoral levels given limited resources, for example, to meet the Global Methane Pledge target, but they also reveal large uncertainties. Despite these uncertainties, many mitigation costs are clearly low relative to real-world financial instruments and very low compared with methane damage estimates, but legally binding regulations and methane pricing are needed to meet climate goals.
Authors 15
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Drew T. Shindell corresponding
Tel Aviv University · Duke University
Affiliation as printed
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
The Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Israel
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Affiliation as printed
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
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Space Research Organisation Netherlands
Affiliation as printed
SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Leiden, Netherlands
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Agence internationale de l'énergie
Affiliation as printed
World Energy Outlook Team, International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris, France
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Georgetown University · Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development
Affiliation as printed
Department of Physics, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States
Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD), Washington, DC, United States
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Affiliation as printed
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
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Goddard Space Flight Center · NASA Earth Science
Affiliation as printed
Earth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines · Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · Université Paris-Saclay · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Affiliation as printed
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Affiliation as printed
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines · Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · CEA Paris-Saclay - Etablissement de Saclay · Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Affiliation as printed
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Université de Saclay, Saclay, France
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Université de Saclay, Saclay, France
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Affiliation as printed
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
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The Nature Conservancy · Duke University
Affiliation as printed
Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, United States
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
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North Carolina State University
Affiliation as printed
Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
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Goddard Institute for Space Studies · Columbia University
Affiliation as printed
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
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Space Research Organisation Netherlands
Affiliation as printed
SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Leiden, Netherlands
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