Optimizing Causal Interventions in Hybrid Bayesian Networks

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Abstract

Abstract Causality is increasingly integrated into decision-making processes. Often, the goal is to optimize over causal interventions to achieve specific policy objectives. However, research into causal optimization has bifurcated into either the online optimization of interventions in causal models or the offline optimization of decision rules in causal influence diagrams. This paper introduces an approximate method for offline optimizing interventions in arbitrary hybrid Bayesian networks using observational data. The optimization problem is approached by compiling discretized Bayesian networks as binary decision diagrams, whereafter running interventional queries is very efficient. This efficiency is exploited by running heuristic optimization algorithms to optimize over the interventional queries. By running experiments on a variety of large hybrid Bayesian networks, we demonstrate the practical utility of our method and discuss policy relevance.

Authors 8

1. Maarten Vonk Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

   Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science Leiden University, The Netherlands

2. Diederick Vermetten Aachen

   Leiden University · The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

   Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science Leiden University, The Netherlands

   Leiden University Jacob de Nobel Leiden University Sebastiaan Brand Leiden University Ninoslav Malekovic The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

3. Jacob de Nobel Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

   Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science Leiden University, The Netherlands

4. Sebastiaan Brand Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

   Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science Leiden University, The Netherlands

5. Ninoslav Malekovic Aachen

   Leiden University · The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

   Affiliation as printed

   The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

   Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science Leiden University, The Netherlands

6. Thomas Bäck Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

   Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science Leiden University, The Netherlands

7. Alfons Laarman Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

   Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science Leiden University, The Netherlands

8. Anna V. Kononova Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

   Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science Leiden University, The Netherlands