Investing in Artificial Intelligence

Cambridge University Press eBooks, pp. 173–198

Abstract

In this chapter, we ask what economic modeling can tell us about the likelihood that firms will invent an AGI: how much and for how long must they sustain investment in R&D to obtain such an invention? We develop a novel Real Options Model, one that uses a stochastic compound Poisson process, to explicitly take into account that a radical innovation such as an AGI is subject to much more uncertainty than typical business investments – which also helps throw light of the breakthroughs and backlashes that have characterized periodic AI winters. An important conclusion from the modelling in this chapter is that it will most likely be largely government-funded agencies and/or a few large corporations that will invent an AGI, if it is ever invented.

Authors 3

1. Wim A. Naudé Aachen

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule, Aachen, Germany

2. Thomas Gries

   Paderborn University

   Affiliation as printed

   Universität Paderborn, Germany

3. Nicola Dimitri

   University of Siena

   Affiliation as printed

   Università degli Studi, Siena