Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564

Abstract

Abstract The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1–3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system 1 . Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Authors 24

1. Bernardo M. Flores corresponding

   Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

   Affiliation as printed

   Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil. mflores.bernardo@gmail.com

   Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil

2. Encarni Montoya

   Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas · Geociencias Barcelona

   Affiliation as printed

   Geosciences Barcelona, Spanish National Research Council, Barcelona, Spain

3. Boris Sakschewski

   Leibniz Association · Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

   Affiliation as printed

   Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany

4. Nathália Nascimento

   Universidade de São Paulo · Instituto de Estudos Avançados da Universidade de São Paulo

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

5. Arie Staal

   Utrecht University

   Affiliation as printed

   Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

6. Richard Betts

   Met Office · University of Exeter

   Affiliation as printed

   Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

   Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

7. Carolina Levis

   Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

   Affiliation as printed

   Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil

8. David M. Lapola

   Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

   Affiliation as printed

   Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil

9. Adriane Esquivel‐Muelbert

   University of Birmingham

   Affiliation as printed

   Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

   School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

10. Catarina Conte Jakovac

    Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Plant Sciences, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil

11. CARLOS AFONSO NOBRE

    Universidade de São Paulo · Instituto de Estudos Avançados da Universidade de São Paulo

    Affiliation as printed

    Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

12. Rafael S. Oliveira

    Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil

13. Laura S. Borma

    Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

    Affiliation as printed

    Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil

14. Da Nian

    Leibniz Association · Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

    Affiliation as printed

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany

15. Niklas Boers

    Leibniz Association · Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research · Technical University of Munich

    Affiliation as printed

    Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany

16. Susanna B. Hecht

    University of California, Los Angeles

    Affiliation as printed

    Luskin School for Public Affairs and Institute of the Environment, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

17. Hans ter Steege Aachen Naturalis Biodiversity Center

    Naturalis Biodiversity Center · Utrecht University

    Affiliation as printed

    Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands

    Quantitative Biodiversity Dynamics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

18. Julia Arieira
    Affiliation as printed

    Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA), São José dos Campos, Brazil

19. Isabella Leite Lucas
    Affiliation as printed

    Sustainable Development Solutions Network, New York, NY, USA

20. Érika Berenguer

    University of Oxford

    Affiliation as printed

    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

21. José Antonio Marengo

    Korea University · Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais · Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)

    Affiliation as printed

    Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, São José dos Campos, Brazil

    Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, UNESP/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil

    Graduate School of International Studies, Korea University, Seoul, Korea

22. Luciana V. Gatti

    Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

    Affiliation as printed

    Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil

23. Caio R. C. Mattos

    Princeton University

    Affiliation as printed

    Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

24. Marina Hirota corresponding

    Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) · Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil. marinahirota@gmail.com

    Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil. marinahirota@gmail.com

    Group IpES, Department of Physics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil. marinahirota@gmail.com

    Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil