Technology Forecasting: Action Research on Integrating Scenario Planning and Text Mining

IEEE International Conference on Engineering, Technology and Innovation (ICE/ITMC), vol. 4, pp. 1–9

Abstract

As the world becomes more technology-driven, organizations are identifying and assessing technological opportunities and threats in order to stay relevant. These routines are what we refer to as technology forecasting. However, there is still a need for a method that fits the pace of technological advancements. To provide better guidance, we investigate current technology forecasting methods and execute an action research project in which we integrate scenario planning and text mining as a technology forecasting method. We provide the procedures for integrating scenario planning and text mining and offer a template for executing technology forecasting workshops based on our proposed method. Despite the barriers, such as the complexity of text mining or differences in experience among the participants, we found that our proposed technology forecasting method is perceived as a fast, in-depth, and repeatable approach.

Authors 4

1. Tyron Offerman Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University,LIACS,CA Leiden,The Netherlands,2333

   BearingPoint B.V., BH Amsterdam, The Netherlands

2. Renée Françoise Boot Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University,LIACS,CA Leiden,The Netherlands,2333

3. Christoph Johann Stettina Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University,LIACS,CA Leiden,The Netherlands,2333

4. Joost Visser Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University,LIACS,CA Leiden,The Netherlands,2333