Verifying Methane Inventories and Trends With Atmospheric Methane Data
AGU Advances, vol. 4
Abstract
Abstract The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and Global Methane Pledge formalized agreement for countries to report and reduce methane emissions to mitigate near‐term climate change. Emission inventories generated through surface activity measurements are reported annually or bi‐annually, and evaluated periodically through a “Global Stocktake.” Emissions inverted from atmospheric data support evaluation of reported inventories, but their systematic use is stifled by spatially variable biases from prior errors combined with limited sensitivity of observations to emissions (also called smoothing error), as‐well‐as poorly characterized information content. Here, we demonstrate a Bayesian, optimal estimation (OE) algorithm for evaluating a state‐of‐the‐art inventory (EDGAR v6.0) using satellite‐based emissions from 2009 to 2018. The OE algorithm quantifies the information content (uncertainty reduction, sectoral attribution, spatial resolution) of the satellite‐based emissions and disentangles the effect of smoothing error when comparing to an inventory. We find robust differences between satellite and EDGAR for total livestock, rice, and coal emissions: 14 ± 9, 12 ± 8, −11 ± 6 Tg CH 4 /yr respectively. EDGAR and satellite agree that livestock emissions are increasing (0.25–1.3 Tg CH 4 /yr/yr), primarily in the Indo‐Pakistan region, sub‐tropical Africa, and the Southern Brazilian; East Asia rice emissions are also increasing, highlighting the importance of agriculture on the atmospheric methane growth rate. In contrast, low information content for the waste and fossil emission trends confounds comparison between EDGAR and satellite; increased sampling and spatial resolution of satellite observations are therefore needed to evaluate reported changes to emissions in these sectors.
Authors 13
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John R. Worden corresponding
California Institute of Technology · Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Affiliation as printed
Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute for Technology Pasadena CA USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute for Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
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California Institute of Technology · Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Affiliation as printed
Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute for Technology Pasadena CA USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute for Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
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Harvard University · Westlake University
Affiliation as printed
Harvard University Cambridge MA USA
Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment and Resources of Zhejiang Province School of Engineering Westlake University Hangzhou China
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment and Resources of Zhejiang Province, School of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China
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Affiliation as printed
University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
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Affiliation as printed
Harvard University Cambridge MA USA
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
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California Institute of Technology · Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Affiliation as printed
Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute for Technology Pasadena CA USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute for Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
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California Institute of Technology · Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Affiliation as printed
Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute for Technology Pasadena CA USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute for Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
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Joannes D. Maasakkers Aachen SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research Leiden The Netherlands SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research
Space Research Organisation Netherlands
Affiliation as printed
SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research Leiden The Netherlands
SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Leiden, The Netherlands
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California Institute of Technology · Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Affiliation as printed
Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute for Technology Pasadena CA USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute for Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
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Affiliation as printed
University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
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California Institute of Technology · Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Affiliation as printed
Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute for Technology Pasadena CA USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute for Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
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Affiliation as printed
Rocky Mountain Institute Boulder CO USA
Rocky Mountain Institute, Boulder, CO, USA
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Affiliation as printed
Harvard University Cambridge MA USA
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
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