FLAMINGO: Calibrating large cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with machine learning

arXiv (Cornell University)

Abstract

To fully take advantage of the data provided by large-scale structure surveys, we need to quantify the potential impact of baryonic effects, such as feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation, on cosmological observables. In simulations, feedback processes originate on scales that remain unresolved. Therefore, they need to be sourced via subgrid models that contain free parameters. We use machine learning to calibrate the AGN and stellar feedback models for the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Using Gaussian process emulators trained on Latin hypercubes of 32 smaller-volume simulations, we model how the galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions change as a function of the subgrid parameters. The emulators are then fit to observational data, allowing for the inclusion of potential observational biases. We apply our method to the three different FLAMINGO resolutions, spanning a factor of 64 in particle mass, recovering the observed relations within the respective resolved mass ranges. We also use the emulators, which link changes in subgrid parameters to changes in observables, to find models that skirt or exceed the observationally allowed range for cluster gas fractions and the stellar mass function. Our method enables us to define model variations in terms of the data that they are calibrated to rather than the values of specific subgrid parameters. This approach is useful, because subgrid parameters are typically not directly linked to particular observables, and predictions for a specific observable are influenced by multiple subgrid parameters.

Authors 19

1. Roi Kugel Aachen Leiden Observatory

   Leiden University · Leiden Observatory

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden Observatory , Leiden University , PO Box 9513 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

2. Joop Schaye Aachen Leiden Observatory

   Leiden University · Leiden Observatory

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden Observatory , Leiden University , PO Box 9513 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

3. Matthieu Schaller Aachen Leiden Observatory Lorentz Institute for Theoretical Physics

   Leiden University · Leiden Observatory

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden Observatory , Leiden University , PO Box 9513 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

   Lorentz Institute for Theoretical Physics , Leiden University , PO box 9506 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

4. John C Helly

   Durham University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Computational Cosmology , Department of Physics , University of Durham , South Road , Durham , DH1 3LE , UK

5. Joey Braspenning Aachen Leiden Observatory

   Leiden University · Leiden Observatory

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden Observatory , Leiden University , PO Box 9513 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

6. Carlos Silvestre Frenk

   Durham University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Computational Cosmology , Department of Physics , University of Durham , South Road , Durham , DH1 3LE , UK

7. Ian G. McCarthy

   Liverpool John Moores University

   Affiliation as printed

   Astrophysics Research Institute , Liverpool John Moores University , Liverpool L3 5RF , UK

8. Juliana Kwan

   Liverpool John Moores University

   Affiliation as printed

   Astrophysics Research Institute , Liverpool John Moores University , Liverpool L3 5RF , UK

9. Jaime Salcido

   Liverpool John Moores University

   Affiliation as printed

   Astrophysics Research Institute , Liverpool John Moores University , Liverpool L3 5RF , UK

10. Marcel P. van Daalen Aachen Leiden Observatory

    Leiden University · Leiden Observatory

    Affiliation as printed

    Leiden Observatory , Leiden University , PO Box 9513 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

11. Bert Vandenbroucke Aachen Leiden Observatory

    Leiden University · Leiden Observatory

    Affiliation as printed

    Leiden Observatory , Leiden University , PO Box 9513 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

12. Yannick M Bahé
13. Josh Borrow

    Durham University · Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Physics , Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research , Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cambridge , MA 02139 , USA

    Institute for Computational Cosmology , Department of Physics , University of Durham , South Road , Durham , DH1 3LE , UK

14. Evgenii Chaikin Aachen Leiden Observatory

    Leiden University · Leiden Observatory

    Affiliation as printed

    Leiden Observatory , Leiden University , PO Box 9513 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

15. Filip Huško
16. Adrian R. Jenkins

    Durham University

    Affiliation as printed

    Institute for Computational Cosmology , Department of Physics , University of Durham , South Road , Durham , DH1 3LE , UK

17. Cedric G. Lacey

    Durham University

    Affiliation as printed

    Institute for Computational Cosmology , Department of Physics , University of Durham , South Road , Durham , DH1 3LE , UK

18. Folkert S J Nobels Aachen Leiden Observatory

    Leiden University · Leiden Observatory

    Affiliation as printed

    Leiden Observatory , Leiden University , PO Box 9513 , 2300 RA Leiden , the Netherlands

19. Ian Vernon

    Durham University

    Affiliation as printed

    Department of Mathematical Sciences , Durham University , Stockton Road , DH1 3LE , Durham , UK