Bayesian Sample Size Planning for Developmental Studies

Abstract

Running developmental experiments, particularly with infants, isoften time consuming and intensive, and recruitment of participantsis hard and expensive. Thus, an important goal for developmentalresearchers is to optimize sampling plans such that neither toomany nor too few participants are tested given the hypothesis ofinterest. One approach that enables such optimization is the useof Bayesian sequential designs. The use of such sequential designsallows data collection to be terminated as soon as the evidence isdeemed su ciently strong, without compromising the interpretabilityof the test outcome. In this tutorial, we illustrate how to plana Bayesian sequential testing design prior to data collection by themethod of Bayes factor design analysis - the Bayesian equivalent ofpower analysis - and discuss the relevance of this for developmentalpsychologists. The tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to performsuch analyses, and the methods are illustrated using commonly usedstatistics in a typical infant looking time paradigm such that researcherscan easily adapt these methods for their studies.

Authors 6

1. Ingmar Visser

   University of Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Psychology , Faculty of Social and Behavioural 5 Sciences , University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam , The Netherlands

   Department of Psychology, Faculty of Social and Behavioural 5 Sciences, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

2. Šimon Kucharský

   University of Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Psychology , Faculty of Social and Behavioural 5 Sciences , University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam , The Netherlands

   Department of Psychology, Faculty of Social and Behavioural 5 Sciences, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

3. Clara C. Levelt Aachen

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Leiden University

4. Angelika Marlene Stefan

   University of Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Psychology , Faculty of Social and Behavioural 5 Sciences , University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam , The Netherlands

   Department of Psychology, Faculty of Social and Behavioural 5 Sciences, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

5. Eric‐Jan Wagenmakers

   University of Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Psychology , Faculty of Social and Behavioural 5 Sciences , University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam , The Netherlands

   Department of Psychology, Faculty of Social and Behavioural 5 Sciences, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

6. Lisa M. Oakes

   University of California, Davis

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Psychology and the Center for Mind and Brain , University of California , Davis

   Department of Psychology and the Center for Mind and Brain, University of California, Davis