Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges
Evolutionary Applications, vol. 16, pp. 3–21
Abstract
Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.
Authors 36
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Meike T. Wortel corresponding
Affiliation as printed
Swammerdam Institute for Life Sciences University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
Swammerdam Institute for Life Sciences, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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National Centre for Biological Sciences
Affiliation as printed
National Centre for Biological Sciences Bangalore India
National Centre for Biological Sciences, Bangalore, India
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Affiliation as printed
Clarkson University Potsdam New York USA
Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York, USA
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University of Bern · SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics · Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência
Affiliation as printed
Gulbenkian Science Institute Oeiras Portugal
Institute of Ecology and Evolution University of Bern Bern Switzerland
Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics Lausanne Switzerland
Gulbenkian Science Institute, Oeiras, Portugal
Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
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University of Amsterdam · KU Leuven
Affiliation as printed
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
Laboratory of Aquatic Biology, KU Leuven Kulak Kortrijk Belgium
Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Laboratory of Aquatic Biology, KU Leuven Kulak, Kortrijk, Belgium
Origins Center, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Origins Center, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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Affiliation as printed
Mathematical Institute Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands
Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands
Origins Center, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência
Affiliation as printed
Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência Oeiras Portugal
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Affiliation as printed
Harvard University Cambridge Massachusetts USA
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
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Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology
Affiliation as printed
Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology Plön Germany
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Affiliation as printed
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Ecological Science Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
Department of Ecological Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology
Affiliation as printed
Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology Jena Germany
Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology, Jena, Germany
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Netherlands Institute of Ecology
Affiliation as printed
Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW) Wageningen The Netherlands
Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
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University of Applied Sciences Leiden
Affiliation as printed
Leiden Centre for Applied Bioscience University of Applied Sciences Leiden Leiden The Netherlands
Leiden Centre for Applied Bioscience, University of Applied Sciences Leiden, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Institute for Biological Physics University of Cologne Cologne Germany
Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
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Delft University of Technology
Affiliation as printed
Department of Bionanoscience, Kavli Institute of Nanoscience TU Delft Delft The Netherlands
Department of Bionanoscience, Kavli Institute of Nanoscience, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Institute for Biological Physics University of Cologne Cologne Germany
Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
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Affiliation as printed
Department Molecular Biology Umeå University Umeå Sweden
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Affiliation as printed
Theoretical Biology and Bioinformatics, Department of Biology Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
Theoretical Biology and Bioinformatics, Department of Biology, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Inserm · Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure
Affiliation as printed
Institute de Biologie, École Normale Supérieure, CNRS, Inserm Paris France
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Affiliation as printed
University of Bristol Bristol UK
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université Paris Sciences et Lettres · Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology · Chimie Biologie Innovation · ESPCI Paris
Affiliation as printed
Department of Microbial Population Biology Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology Plön Germany
Laboratoire Biophysique et Évolution, CBI, ESPCI Paris, Université PSL, CNRS Paris France
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Daniel E. Rozen Aachen Institute of Biology Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands Institute of Biology, Leiden University
Affiliation as printed
Institute of Biology, Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands
Institute of Biology, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Shraddha Shitut Aachen Institute of Biology Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands Institute of Biology, Leiden University
Affiliation as printed
Institute of Biology, Leiden University Leiden The Netherlands
Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands
Institute of Biology, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands
Origins Center, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Institute for Atomic and Molecular Physics
Affiliation as printed
AMOLF Amsterdam The Netherlands
AMOLF, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Inserm · Université Paris Cité · Infection, Anti-microbiens, Modélisation, Evolution
Affiliation as printed
Université Paris Cité, IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM Paris France
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Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure
Affiliation as printed
Institut de Biologie de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris France
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Wageningen University & Research
Affiliation as printed
Laboratory of Genetics Wageningen University & Research Wageningen The Netherlands
Laboratory of Genetics Wageningen University & Research Wageningen The Netherlands
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Netherlands Institute of Ecology
Affiliation as printed
Department of Animal Ecology Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW) Wageningen The Netherlands
Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Informatics Institute University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands
Origins Center Groningen The Netherlands
Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Origins Center, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Zoology University of Oxford Oxford UK
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Affiliation as printed
Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences University of Groningen Groningen The Netherlands
Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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San Francisco State University
Affiliation as printed
San Francisco State University San Francisco California USA
San Francisco State University, San Francisco, California, USA
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