Quantifying protocols for safe school activities

PLoS ONE, vol. 17, pp. e0273425

Abstract

By the peak of COVID-19 restrictions on April 8, 2020, up to 1.5 billion students across 188 countries were affected by the suspension of physical attendance in schools. Schools were among the first services to reopen as vaccination campaigns advanced. With the emergence of new variants and infection waves, the question now is to find safe protocols for the continuation of school activities. We need to understand how reliable these protocols are under different levels of vaccination coverage, as many countries have a meager fraction of their population vaccinated, including Uganda where the coverage is about 8%. We investigate the impact of face-to-face classes under different protocols and quantify the surplus number of infected individuals in a city. Using the infection transmission when schools were closed as a baseline, we assess the impact of physical school attendance in classrooms with poor air circulation. We find that (i) resuming school activities with people only wearing low-quality masks leads to a near fivefold city-wide increase in the number of cases even if all staff is vaccinated, (ii) resuming activities with students wearing good-quality masks and staff wearing N95s leads to about a threefold increase, (iii) combining high-quality masks and active monitoring, activities may be carried out safely even with low vaccination coverage. These results highlight the effectiveness of good mask-wearing. Compared to ICU costs, high-quality masks are inexpensive and can help curb the spreading. Classes can be carried out safely, provided the correct set of measures are implemented.

Authors 13

1. Juliano Genari

   Universidade de São Paulo

   Affiliation as printed

   Instituto de Ciências Matemáticas e Computação, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

2. Guilherme Tegoni Goedert Aachen Aachen Institute for Advanced Study in Computational Engineering Science (AICES)

   University of Rome Tor Vergata · Cyprus Institute · Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare · Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Roma Tor Vergata · Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Roma I · Aachen Institute for Advanced Study in Computational Engineering Science · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Aachen Institute for Advanced Study in Computational Engineering Science, RWTH AACHEN University, Aachen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany

   Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, District of Nicosia, Cyprus

   Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata and INFN, Rome, Lazio, Italy

3. Sérgio H. A. Lira

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas

   Affiliation as printed

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil

4. Krerley Oliveira

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas

   Affiliation as printed

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil

5. Allysson Roberto Barbosa de Lima

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas

   Affiliation as printed

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil

6. José Augusto Silva

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas

   Affiliation as printed

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil

7. Maurício Maciel

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas

   Affiliation as printed

   Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brazil

8. Ismael Ledoino

   Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica

   Affiliation as printed

   Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

9. Lucas Resende

   Instituto Nacional de Matemática Pura e Aplicada

   Affiliation as printed

   Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

10. Edmilson Roque dos Santos

    Universidade de São Paulo

    Affiliation as printed

    Instituto de Ciências Matemáticas e Computação, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

11. D. Marchesin

    Instituto Nacional de Matemática Pura e Aplicada

    Affiliation as printed

    Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

12. Claudio José Struchiner

    Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro · Fundação Getulio Vargas

    Affiliation as printed

    Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Instituto de Medicina Social, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

13. Tiago Pereira corresponding

    Universidade de São Paulo

    Affiliation as printed

    Instituto de Ciências Matemáticas e Computação, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil