Comment on egusphere-2022-450

Abstract

Abstract. Despite consensus on the overall downward trend in Amazon forest loss in the previous decade, estimates of yearly carbon emissions from deforestation still vary widely. Estimated carbon emissions are currently often based on data from local logging activity reports, changes in remotely sensed biomass as well as remote detection of fire hotspots, and burned area. Here, we use sixteen years of satellite-derived carbon monoxide (CO) columns to constrain fire CO emissions from the Amazon basin between 2003 and 2018. Through data assimilation, we produce 3-daily maps of fire CO emissions over the Amazon that we verified to be consistent with a long-term monitoring program of aircraft CO profiles over five sites in the Amazon. Our new product independently confirms a long-term decrease of 54 % in deforestation-related CO emissions over the study period. Interannual variability is large, with known anomalously dry years showing a more than fourfold increase in basin-wide fire emissions. At the level of individual Brazilian states, we find that both soil moisture anomalies and human ignitions determine fire activity, suggesting that future carbon release from fires depends on drought intensity as much as on continued forest protection. Our study shows that the atmospheric composition perspective on deforestation is a valuable additional monitoring instrument that complements existing bottom-up and remote sensing methods for land-use change. Extension of such a perspective to an operational framework is timely considering the observed increased fire intensity in the Amazon basin in 2019–2021.

Authors 14

1. Stijn Naus corresponding Aachen SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research

   Space Research Organisation Netherlands · Wageningen University & Research

   Affiliation as printed

   Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research, The Netherlands

   SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands

2. Lucas G. Domingues

   GNS Science · Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares

   Affiliation as printed

   National Isotope Centre, GNS Science, New Zealand

   Nuclear and Energy Research Institute, São Paulo, Brazil

3. Maarten Krol

   Utrecht University · Wageningen University & Research

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands

   Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research, The Netherlands

4. Ingrid T. Luijkx

   Wageningen University & Research

   Affiliation as printed

   Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research, The Netherlands

5. Luciana V. Gatti

   Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares · Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

   Affiliation as printed

   National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil

   Nuclear and Energy Research Institute, São Paulo, Brazil

6. John Bharat Miller

   National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

   Affiliation as printed

   Global Monitoring Laboratory, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA

7. Emanuel U. Gloor

   University of Leeds

   Affiliation as printed

   School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

8. Sourish Basu

   Goddard Space Flight Center · Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center

   Affiliation as printed

   Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, MD, USA

   NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

9. Caio Correia

   Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares · Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

   Affiliation as printed

   National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil

   Nuclear and Energy Research Institute, São Paulo, Brazil

10. Gerbrand Koren

    Utrecht University

    Affiliation as printed

    Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

11. H. M. Worden

    NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research · NSF NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling

    Affiliation as printed

    Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

12. Johannes Flemming

    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

    Affiliation as printed

    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK

13. Gabrielle B. Petron

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences · University of Colorado Boulder · NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

    Affiliation as printed

    Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

    Global Monitoring Laboratory, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA

14. Wouter Peters

    University of Groningen · Wageningen University & Research

    Affiliation as printed

    Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, The Netherlands

    Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research, The Netherlands