Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning
PNAS Nexus, vol. 1, pp. pgac093
Abstract
Abstract At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multi-national data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution—individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar was found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-negligible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.
Authors 99
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Tomislav M. Pavlovic corresponding
Institut Društvenih Znanosti Ivo Pilar
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Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar , Zagreb , Croatia
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Department of Psychology, School of the Biological Sciences, Cambridge University , Cambridge , United Kingdom
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Department of Finance and Quantitative Methods, Gatton College of Business & Economics, University of Kentucky , Lexington, Kentucky , United States of America
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Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia
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Faculty of Medicine, Cooperative University of Colombia , Villavicencio, Meta , Colombia
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Institut Društvenih Znanosti Ivo Pilar
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Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar , Zagreb , Croatia
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Department of Philosophy and Social Studies, University of Crete , Rethymnon, Crete , Greece
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Department of Research and Development , Kozaca SA, Rosario, Santa Fe , Argentina
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia
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Direccion Academica Sede la Paz, Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede de La Paz , Cesar , Colombia
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Department of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong , Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
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Department of Economics, Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University , The Hague , Netherlands
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School of Human Sciences, University of Greenwich , London , United Kingdom
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Department of Philosophy, University of St Andrews , St Andrews, United Kingdom
Department of Philosophy, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
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Department of Economics, Middlesex University London , London , United Kingdom
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Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
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Department of Psychiatry, Pontifical Xavierian University , Bogotá, Colombia
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Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University , Durham, North Carolina , United States of America
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Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas · University of California, San Francisco · Trinity College Dublin · Adolfo Ibáñez University · University of San Andrés · Global Brain Health Institute
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Cognitive Neuroscience Center (CNC), University of San Andrés & CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina , Buenos Aires , Argentina
Global Brain Health Institute , Trinity College, Dublin , Ireland
Global Brain Health Institute, University of California - San Francisco , San Francisco, California , United States of America
Latin American Brain Health Institute (BrainLat), Universidad Adolfo Ibañez , Santiago , Peñalolén, Chile
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Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge , Cambridge , United Kingdom
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Department of Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics , Stockholm , Sweden
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Department of Sociology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade , Belgrade , Serbia
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Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam , Netherlands
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Departamento de Matemática y Ciencias, Universidad de San Andres , Victoria, Buenos Aires , Argentina
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Department of Management, Aarhus University , Aarhus , Denmark
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Institut Društvenih Znanosti Ivo Pilar
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Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar , Zagreb , Croatia
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Department of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade , Belgrade , Serbia
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Department of Management, Aarhus University , Aarhus , Denmark
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School of Psychology, University of Kent , Canterbury , United Kingdom
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Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford University , Stanford, California , United States of America
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Department of Philosophy, Macquarie University , Macquarie Park, New South Wales, Australia
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Department of Philosophy, Macquarie University , Macquarie Park, New South Wales, Australia
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Department of Strategy and Management, Norwegian School of Economics , Bergen , Norway
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Institute of Psychology, Center for Climate Action and Social Transformations, SWPS, University of Social Sciences and Humanities , Warsaw , Poland
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Institute of Psychology, SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities , Warsaw , Poland
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University of Oxford · University of Birmingham
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Centre for Human Brain Health, School of Psychology, University of Birmingham , Birmingham , United Kingdom
Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford , Oxford , United Kingdom
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Centre for Sociological Research, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven , Leuven , Belgium
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National Research University Higher School of Economics
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Faculty of Psychology, Higher School of Economics University , Moscow , Russia
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Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam , Netherlands
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Centre for Human Brain Health, School of Psychology, University of Birmingham , Birmingham , United Kingdom
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Department of Psychology, Sunway University , Petaling Jaya, Selangor , Malaysia
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University of the Witwatersrand
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Department of Psychology, University of the Witwatersrand , Johannesburg , Republic of South Africa
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Department of Political Science, Aarhus University , Aarhus , Denmark
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Toronto Metropolitan University
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Department of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University , Toronto, Ontario , Canada
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Department of Psychology, University of Toronto , Toronto, Ontario , Canada
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National University of Sciences and Technology
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Department of Mass Communication, National University of Science and Technology (NUST) , Islamabad, Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan
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Department of Psychology, University of Greenwich , London , United Kingdom
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Comenius University Bratislava
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Institute of European Studies and International Relations, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Comenius University , Bratislava , Slovakia
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Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts
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Department of Psychology, Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts , Skopje , Republic of North Macedonia
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Department of Sociology, Social Work and Public Health, University of Huelva , Huelva , Spain
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Department of Decision Analytics and Risk, University of Southampton , Southampton , United Kingdom
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Department of Educational and Counselling Psychology, BRAC Institute of Educational and Development, BRAC University , Dhaka , Bangladesh
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Hebrew University of Jerusalem
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Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem , Jerusalem , Israel
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Rotterdam Institute of Law and Economics (RILE), Erasmus University Rotterdam , Rotterdam , Netherlands
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Department of Communication Science , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam , Netherlands
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Kieskompas (Election Compass) , Amsterdam , Netherlands
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Department of Digital Humanities, University of Helsinki , Helsinki , Finland
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Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, University of Vienna , Wien , Austria
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Reichman University · Aalto University
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Baruch Ivcher School of Psychology, Reichman University , Herzliya, Israel
Department of Neuroscience and Biomedical Engineering, Aalto University , Espoo , Finland
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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
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School of Psychology, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico , Mexico City , Mexico
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Department of Economics, National Taiwan University , Taipei, Taiwan
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HEMS School , Kathmandu , Nepal
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Department of Political Science, Aarhus University , Aarhus , Denmark
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Department of Leadership and Organizational Behaviour , BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo , Norway
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Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University , The Hague , Netherlands
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Department of Psychology, University of Limerick , Limerick , Ireland
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Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet , Stockholm , Sweden
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Department of Management, University of Agder , Kristiansand, Norway
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Department of Psychology, Lehigh University , Bethlehem, Pennsylvania , United States of America
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Department of Digital Humanities, University of Helsinki , Helsinki , Finland
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Hebrew University of Jerusalem
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Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem , Jerusalem , Israel
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Department of Political Science, Aarhus University , Aarhus , Denmark
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Department of Psychology , Monk Prayogshala, Powai, Mumbai, Maharashtra , India
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Friedrich Schiller University Jena
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Department of Communication and Media Use, Friedrich Schiller University Jena , Jena , Germany
Department of Social and Behavioral Science, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
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Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich , Zürich, Switzerland
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Chair of Development Economics, University of Bayreuth , Bayreuth , Germany
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National School of Political Science and Public Administration
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Department of Sociology , National School for Political and Administrative Studies (SNSPA), Bucharest , Romania
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Department of Psychiatry and Medical Psychology, Medical University , Plovdiv , Bulgaria
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Division of Translational Neuroscience, Medical University , Plovdiv , Bulgaria
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Indian Institute of Management Indore
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Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Management , Indore, Madhya Pradesh , India
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Department of Psychology, Institute of Social Sciences , Belgrade , Serbia
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Queensland University of Technology
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School of Economics and Finance and Centre for Behavioural Economics, Society and Technology (BEST), Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane City, Queensland , Australia
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University of London · Royal Holloway University of London · School of Advanced Study
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Centre for the Politics of Feelings, School of Advanced Study, University of London , London , United Kingdom
Department of Psychology, Royal Holloway, University of London , Egham , United Kingdom
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Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University , Taipei, Taiwan
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National School of Political Science and Public Administration
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Faculty of Political Science, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration , Bucharest , Romania
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Psychology Department, University of Latvia , Riga , Latvia
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Department of Psychology, New York University , New York , New York, United States of America
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Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury , Christchurch , New Zealand
School of Psychology, Speech, and Hearing, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
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Hebei University of Technology
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School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology , Tianjin , China
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Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique
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School of Collective Intelligence, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University , Ben Guerir, Morocco
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Hebrew University of Jerusalem · Aalto University
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Department of Psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem , Jerusalem , Israel
Department of Neuroscience and Biomedical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
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Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique
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School of Collective Intelligence, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University , Ben Guerir, Morocco
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Department of Psychology, Jose Rizal University , Mandaluyong, Metro Manila , Philippines
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Department of Economics , Telenor Research, Fornebu, Norway
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Cheikh Anta Diop University , Dakar , Senegal
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School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universidad del Rosario , Bogotá, Colombia
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Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Victoria , Australia
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Faculty of Historical and Pedagogical Sciences, University of Wroclaw , Wroclaw , Poland
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IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca
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IMT School for Advanced Studies , Lucca , Italy
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National Research University Higher School of Economics
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Laboratory for Psychology of Social Inequality, Higher School of Economics University , Moscow , Russia
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Department of Economics and Management, University of Florence , Florence , Italy
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London School of Economics and Political Science
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Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science , London , United Kingdom
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