Breakthrough potential of emerging research topics based on citation diffusion features

Journal of Information Science, vol. 49, pp. 1390–1416

Abstract

This article uses the characteristics of citation curves in emerging research topics (ERTs) and combines them with the ERTs’ knowledge bases to draw conclusions by comparing their development patterns. The goal of this study is to enrich the toolset for predicting breakthroughs in scientific research. A set of multidimensional and practical bibliometric indicators is used to identify ERTs, to further identify the knowledge bases of ERTs and construct citation curves for both ERTs and their knowledge bases. The development trends of the citation curves of ERTs and their knowledge bases in different time periods are compared and analysed from two dimensions: knowledge transition and continuous growth. We use the field of stem cell research to test our method. Based on the outcome of the analysis, we can assess the breakthrough potential of ERTs. The stratification, transition and recent changes of the citation curve can be used as a basis for analysing and assessing the ERTs’ breakthrough potential. The combination of different citation diffusion patterns of ERTs and their knowledge bases can improve the effectiveness of identifying ERTs that can become breakthrough innovations.

Authors 4

1. Haiyun Xu corresponding

   Shandong University of Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Business School, Shandong University of Technology, China

2. Jos Winnink Aachen Centre for Science and Technology Studies

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS), Leiden University, The Netherlands

3. Hongshen Pang

   Shenzhen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Shenzhen University Library, China

4. Liang Chen

   Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (ISTIC), China