Machine learning improves global models of plant diversity
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Abstract
Abstract Despite the paramount role of plant diversity for ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and human welfare, knowledge of its global distribution is incomplete, hampering basic research and biodiversity conservation. Here, we used machine learning (random forests, extreme gradient boosting, neural networks) and conventional statistical methods (generalised linear models, generalised additive models) to model species richness and phylogenetic richness of vascular plants worldwide based on 830 regional plant inventories including c. 300,000 species and predictors of past and present environmental conditions. Machine learning showed an outstanding performance, explaining up to 80.9% of species richness and 83.3% of phylogenetic richness. Current climate and environmental heterogeneity emerged as the primary drivers, while past environmental conditions left only small but detectable imprints on plant diversity. Finally, we combined predictions from multiple modelling techniques (ensemble predictions) to reveal global patterns and centres of plant diversity at multiple resolutions down to 7,774 km 2 . Our predictive maps provide the most accurate estimates of global plant diversity available to date at grain sizes relevant for conservation and macroecology.
Authors 25
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Lirong Cai corresponding
Affiliation as printed
Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
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Affiliation as printed
Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
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Affiliation as printed
Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
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Affiliation as printed
Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
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University of Göttingen · Macquarie University
Affiliation as printed
Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Affiliation as printed
BioInvasions, Global Change, Macroecology-Group, University Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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University of Konstanz · Taizhou University · Taizhou University
Affiliation as printed
Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation, Taizhou University, Taizhou, China
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Czech Academy of Sciences · Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany
Affiliation as printed
Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, Department of Invasion Ecology, Průhonice, Czech Republic
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Czech Academy of Sciences · Charles University · Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany
Affiliation as printed
Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, Department of Invasion Ecology, Průhonice, Czech Republic
Department of Ecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
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Affiliation as printed
Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
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German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research
Affiliation as printed
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
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Affiliation as printed
School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
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Affiliation as printed
Departamento de Botánica, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Oceanográficas, Universidad de Concepción, Chile
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Environmental Studies and Centre for Environmental Management of Degraded Ecosystems (CEMDE), University of Delhi, Delhi, India
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Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Affiliation as printed
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland
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Affiliation as printed
Biota of North America Program (BONAP), Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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Affiliation as printed
Kemerovo, Russia
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Affiliation as printed
Biota of North America Program (BONAP), Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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Cornell University · New York State College of Agriculture & Life Sciences
Affiliation as printed
Plant Biology Section, School of Integrative Plant Science, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
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Affiliation as printed
Institute of Biology, University of Opole, Opole, Poland; PAS Botanical Garden, Warszawa, Poland
Institute of Biology, University of Opole, Opole, Poland
PAS Botanical Garden, Warszawa, Poland
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Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences
Affiliation as printed
Hochschule Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, University of Applied Sciences, Vegetation Ecology, Freising, Germany
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Affiliation as printed
School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
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Affiliation as printed
Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, Punjab, India
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Affiliation as printed
Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Campus-Institut Data Science (CIDAS) · University of Göttingen
Affiliation as printed
Biodiversity, Macroecology and Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
Campus-Institute Data Science, Göttingen, Germany
Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
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