Comparing open source power system models - A case study focusing on fundamental modeling parameters for the German energy transition

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 161, pp. 112331

Abstract

Recent European and German climate targets call for a faster power system transition towards variable renewable energy sources. With the increasing importance of Open Science, several Open Source models have been developed in recent years. However, only a few studies exist that compare their performance against each other. Therefore, this study performs a comprehensive model comparison of five mature Open Source power sector models. For this purpose, we apply eight fully harmonized and simplified one-year scenarios for the German power sector, to analyze deviations in model results. First, an in-depth analysis of two base scenarios for 2016 and 2030 reveals that linear programming-based models differ substantially from models with pre-implemented dispatch orders. Other deviations occur across all models and are mainly caused by the indifferent use of flexibility options such as storage and transmission. Second, variations of parameters and characteristics with a political significance are individually applied to the 2030 base scenario to identify their impact on model results. This includes CO2 emission budgets, increased demands by sector coupling, coal exit strategies, and renewable generation shares. The results prove that some models are far more sensitive to these parameters than others, and renewable generation shares alone are not sufficient to reach desired effects in emission reductions. Finally, a comprehensive scenario for 2030 combines all measures to evaluate general trends that result from the most recent updates in German energy policy. Model results indicate that the new targets require substantially increased investments into renewable generation capacities, storage, and transmission.

Authors 12

1. Jonas van Ouwerkerk corresponding Aachen Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives (ISEA) Institute for Power Generation and Storage Systems (PGS)

   Jülich Aachen Research Alliance · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives (ISEA), RWTH Aachen University, Jägerstraße 17-19, 52066, Aachen, Germany

   Institute for Power Generation and Storage Systems (PGS), E.ON ERC, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustraße 10, 52074, Aachen, Germany

   Jülich Aachen Research Alliance, JARA-Energy, Germany

2. Karlo Hainsch

   Technische Universität Berlin

   Affiliation as printed

   Fachgebiet für Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623, Berlin, Germany

3. Soner Candas

   Technical University of Munich

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Systems, Technical University of Munich, Lichtenbergstrasse 4a, 85748, Garching bei München, Germany

4. Christoph Muschner

   Reiner Lemoine Institute

   Affiliation as printed

   Reiner Lemoine Institut GGmbH, Rudower Chaussee 12, 12489, Berlin, Germany

5. Stefanie Buchholz

   Technical University of Denmark

   Affiliation as printed

   Technical University of Denmark, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Akademivej Building 358, 2800, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark

6. Hendrik Huyskens

   Reiner Lemoine Institute

   Affiliation as printed

   Reiner Lemoine Institut GGmbH, Rudower Chaussee 12, 12489, Berlin, Germany

7. Sarah Berendes

   Reiner Lemoine Institute

   Affiliation as printed

   Reiner Lemoine Institut GGmbH, Rudower Chaussee 12, 12489, Berlin, Germany

8. Konstantin Löffler

   Technische Universität Berlin

   Affiliation as printed

   Fachgebiet für Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623, Berlin, Germany

9. Christian Bußar Aachen Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives (ISEA) Institute for Power Generation and Storage Systems (PGS)

   Jülich Aachen Research Alliance · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives (ISEA), RWTH Aachen University, Jägerstraße 17-19, 52066, Aachen, Germany

   Institute for Power Generation and Storage Systems (PGS), E.ON ERC, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustraße 10, 52074, Aachen, Germany

   Jülich Aachen Research Alliance, JARA-Energy, Germany

10. Fateme Tardasti Aachen Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives (ISEA) Institute for Power Generation and Storage Systems (PGS)

    Jülich Aachen Research Alliance · RWTH Aachen University

    Affiliation as printed

    Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives (ISEA), RWTH Aachen University, Jägerstraße 17-19, 52066, Aachen, Germany

    Institute for Power Generation and Storage Systems (PGS), E.ON ERC, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustraße 10, 52074, Aachen, Germany

    Jülich Aachen Research Alliance, JARA-Energy, Germany

11. Luja von Köckritz

    Technische Universität Berlin

    Affiliation as printed

    Fachgebiet für Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP), Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623, Berlin, Germany

12. Rasmus Bramstoft

    Technical University of Denmark

    Affiliation as printed

    Technical University of Denmark, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Akademivej Building 358, 2800, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark