Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread

Frontiers in Physics, vol. 10

Abstract

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behavior, and disease spread. We studied how voluntary health-protective behavior and vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. We analyzed how different levels of mandatory NPIs determine how individuals use their leeway for voluntary actions. If mandatory NPIs are too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity and mortality before individuals react; if they are too strong, one expects a rebound wave once restrictions are lifted, challenging the transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate mandatory NPIs give individuals time and room to adapt their level of caution, mitigating disease spread effectively. When complemented with high vaccination rates, this also offers a robust way to limit the impacts of the Omicron variant of concern. Altogether, our work highlights the importance of appropriate mandatory NPIs to maximise the impact of individual voluntary actions in pandemic control.

Authors 11

1. Philipp Dönges

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization

   Affiliation as printed

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany

2. Sebastián Contreras

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization · Centre for Biotechnology and Bioengineering · University of Chile

   Affiliation as printed

   Centre for Biotechnology and Bioengineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany

3. Emil N. Iftekhar

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization

   Affiliation as printed

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany

4. Simon Bauer

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization

   Affiliation as printed

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany

5. Sebastian Mohr

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization

   Affiliation as printed

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany

6. Jonas Dehning

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization

   Affiliation as printed

   Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany

7. André Sergej Calero Valdez Aachen Chair of Communication Science

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair of Communication Science, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

8. Mirjam Kretzschmar

   Utrecht University · University Medical Center Utrecht

   Affiliation as printed

   University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

9. Michael Mäs

   Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Sociology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

10. Kai Nagel

    Technische Universität Berlin

    Affiliation as printed

    Chair of Transport Systems Planning and Transport Telematics, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

11. Viola Priesemann corresponding

    Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization · University of Göttingen

    Affiliation as printed

    Institute for the Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany

    Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany