Using the catastrophe theory to discover transformative research topics
Research Evaluation, vol. 31, pp. 61–79
Abstract
Abstract This study approaches the identification and prediction of transformative research topics by using the concepts of catastrophe theory. Based on the evaluation model of catastrophe theory, 11 indicators were selected for four different aspects: growth rate, economic and social influence, network characteristics and the degree of uncertainty in evaluating an emerging topics’ transformative potential. The stem cell research field is used as case study. The results of this study show that there are differences between various emerging research topics (ERTs) within the stem cell research field and their potential ability to induce changes and innovation. The method developed in this article is able to identify and predict the future transformative potential of ERTs and provides reference information for scientific and technological planning, industrial policy and scientific research management.
Authors 5
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Haiyun Xu corresponding
Shandong University of Technology · Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China
Affiliation as printed
Business School, Shandong University of Technology, 266 Xincun W Rd, Zhangdian District, Zibo, Shandong, P. R. China
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (ISTIC), No.15 Fuxing Road, Beijing, 100038, P. R. China
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Affiliation as printed
Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS), Leiden University, Leiden 2300 AX, the Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Archives, Northwest Normal University, NO. 967 Anning East Road, Lanzhou, Gansu, P.R. China
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Affiliation as printed
Library, Shenzhen University, 3688 Nanhai Avenue, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong, P. R. China
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Affiliation as printed
Information Research Institute of Shandong Academy of Science, No.19 Keyuan Road, Jinan, Shandong Province, P. R. China
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