Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels

Energies, vol. 14, pp. 7128

Abstract

Power system operators are confronted with a multitude of new forecasting tasks to ensure a constant supply security despite the decreasing number of fully controllable energy producers. With this paper, we aim to facilitate the selection of suitable forecasting approaches for the load forecasting problem. First, we provide a classification of load forecasting cases in two dimensions: temporal and hierarchical. Then, we identify typical features and models for forecasting and compare their applicability in a structured manner depending on six previously defined cases. These models are compared against real data in terms of their computational effort and accuracy during development and testing. From this comparative analysis, we derive a generic guide for the selection of the best prediction models and features per case.

Authors 3

1. Gonca Gürses-Tran corresponding Aachen E.ON Energy Research Center Institute for Automation of Complex Power Systems

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Automation of Complex Power Systems, RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany

2. Reinhard Madlener Aachen E.ON Energy Research Center Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior School of Business and Economics

   RWTH Aachen University · Norwegian University of Science and Technology

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Sentralbygg 1, Gløshaugen, 7491 Trondheim, Norway

   E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany

3. Antonello Monti Aachen E.ON Energy Research Center Institute for Automation of Complex Power Systems

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Automation of Complex Power Systems, RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany