Model-related outcome differences in power system models with sector coupling—Quantification and drivers

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 159, pp. 112177

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a multi-model comparison to determine outcome deviations resulting from differences in power system models. We apply eight temporally and spatially resolved models to 16 stylized test cases. These test cases differ in their renewable energy supply share, technology scope, and optimization scope. We focus on technologies for balancing the variability of power generation, such as controllable power plants, energy storage, power transmission, and flexibility related to sector coupling. We use harmonized input data in all models to separate model-related from data-related outcome deviations. We find that our approach allows for isolating and quantifying model-related outcome deviations and robust effects concerning system operation and investment decisions. Furthermore, we can attribute these deviations to the identified model differences. Our results show that trends in the use of individual flexibility options are robust across most models. Moreover, our analysis reveals that differences in the general modeling approach and the modeling of specific technologies lead to comparatively small deviations. In contrast, a heterogeneous model scope can cause substantially larger deviations. Due to a large number of models and scenarios, our analysis can provide important information on which investment and operation decisions are robust to the model choice, and which modeling approaches have an exceptionally high impact on results. Our findings may guide both modelers and decision-makers in properly evaluating the results of similarly designed power system models.

Authors 10

1. Hans Christian Gils corresponding

   Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR)

   Affiliation as printed

   German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestr. 4, 70563 Stuttgart, Germany

   Stuttgart Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy (STRise), Keplerstraße 7, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany

2. Hedda Gardian

   Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR)

   Affiliation as printed

   German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestr. 4, 70563 Stuttgart, Germany

   Stuttgart Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy (STRise), Keplerstraße 7, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany

3. Martin Kittel

   German Institute for Economic Research

   Affiliation as printed

   German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany

4. Wolf-Peter Schill

   German Institute for Economic Research

   Affiliation as printed

   German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany

5. Alexander Murmann

   Research Center for Energy Economics

   Affiliation as printed

   Research Center for Energy Economics (FfE), Am Blütenanger 71, 80995 München, Germany

6. Jann Launer

   Reiner Lemoine Institute

   Affiliation as printed

   Reiner Lemoine Institute, Rudower Chaussee 12, 12389 Berlin, Germany

7. Felix Gaumnitz Aachen Institute for High Voltage Equipment and Grids

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics (IAEW), RWTH Aachen University, Schinkelstraße 6, 52056 Aachen, Germany

8. Jonas van Ouwerkerk Aachen Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives (ISEA) Institute for Power Generation and Storage Systems (PGS)

   Jülich Aachen Research Alliance · RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Institute for Power Electronics and Electrical Drives (ISEA), RWTH Aachen University, Jägerstraße 17-19, 52066 Aachen, Germany

   Institute for Power Generation and Storage Systems (PGS), E.ON ERC, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustraße 10, 52074 Aachen, Germany

   Jülich Aachen Research Alliance, JARA-Energy, Germany

9. Jennifer Mikurda

   University of Duisburg-Essen

   Affiliation as printed

   Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics (EWL), University of Duisburg–Essen, Universitätsstr. 11, 45117 Essen, Germany

10. Laura Torralba-Díaz

    University of Stuttgart

    Affiliation as printed

    Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use (IER), University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstraße 49a, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany

    Stuttgart Research Initiative on Integrated Systems Analysis for Energy (STRise), Keplerstraße 7, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany