Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation

Science, vol. 374, pp. eabj0359

Abstract

The concept of tipping points and critical transitions helps inform our understanding of the catastrophic effects that global change may have on ecosystems, Earth system components, and the whole Earth system. The search for early warning indicators is ongoing, and spatial self-organization has been interpreted as one such signal. Here, we review how spatial self-organization can aid complex systems to evade tipping points and can therefore be a signal of resilience instead. Evading tipping points through various pathways of spatial pattern formation may be relevant for many ecosystems and Earth system components that hitherto have been identified as tipping prone, including for the entire Earth system. We propose a systematic analysis that may reveal the broad range of conditions under which tipping is evaded and resilience emerges.

Authors 6

1. Max Rietkerk corresponding

   Utrecht University

   Affiliation as printed

   Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, Netherlands

2. Robbin Bastiaansen

   Utrecht University

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3508 TA, Utrecht, Netherlands

3. Swarnendu Banerjee

   Utrecht University · Institute of Mathematical Sciences · Indian Statistical Institute

   Affiliation as printed

   Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, Netherlands

   Indian Statistical Institute, Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Kolkata 700108, India

   The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, CIT Campus, Taramani, Chennai 600113, India

4. Johan van de Koppel

   University of Groningen · Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, 4400 AC, Yerseke, Netherlands

   Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, Conservation Ecology Group, University of Groningen, 9700 CC, Groningen, Netherlands

5. Mara Baudena

   Utrecht University · Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate · National Research Council

   Affiliation as printed

   Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3508 TC, Utrecht, Netherlands

   National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), 10133 Torino, Italy

6. Arjen Doelman Aachen Mathematical Institute

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, 2300 RA, Leiden, Netherlands