Detecting regime transitions in the stable boundary layer

Abstract

Predictability of the atmospheric boundary layer is impaired by possible rapid transitions between fully turbulent states and quiescent, quasi-laminar states. Such rapid transitions are observed in Polar regions or at night when the atmospheric boundary layer is stably stratified, and they have important consequences in the strength of mixing with the higher levels of the atmosphere. In some cases, perturbations of the flow can play an important role in triggering transitions. Using different randomised models of the stable boundary layer, we will investigate the role of natural fluctuations of atmospheric processes to trigger regime transitions. We then apply a combination of methods from dynamical systems, statistical modelling and information theory to study and detect those regime transitions. A statistical-dynamical indicator is developed as an early-warning signal of regime transitions that can be applied to highly non-stationary field data.

Authors 5

1. Nikki Vercauteren corresponding

   University of Oslo · Freie Universität Berlin

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

   Department of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany (nikki.vercauteren@fu-berlin.de)

2. Amandine Kaiser

   Freie Universität Berlin

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany (nikki.vercauteren@fu-berlin.de)

3. Vyacheslav Boyko

   Freie Universität Berlin

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany (nikki.vercauteren@fu-berlin.de)

4. Davide Faranda corresponding

   Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines · Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · Université Paris-Saclay · CEA Paris-Saclay - Etablissement de Saclay · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement · CEA Paris-Saclay

   Affiliation as printed

   LSCE-IPSL, CEA Saclay l’Orme des Merisiers, CNRS UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

5. Sebastian Krumscheid Aachen Department of Mathematics

   RWTH Aachen University

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Mathematics, Rheinisch-Westfa€lische Technische Hochschule Aachen, Aachen, Germany