Sensitivity analysis in archaeological simulation: An application to the MERCURY model

Journal of Archaeological Science Reports, vol. 38, pp. 102974

Abstract

Computational modelling is increasingly gaining attention in archaeology and related disciplines. With the number of new models growing it is often difficult to evaluate their significance and the generality of the results. This is partially due to the narrow reporting of the model's results, which are often limited to those directly relevant to the research question posed in the first place. Although this is not an issue per se, models, if explored exhaustively, can provide a much wider perspective on the studied system. Sensitivity analysis is a widely recognised model exploration method for assessing the importance of different parameters on the model’s behaviour. Such systematic exploration helps in unravelling the dynamics that drive the model and enable researchers to establish how robust the presented results are. Here we present a sensitivity analysis of MERCURY, a previously published archaeological agent-based model. The results show that two out of three of the original conclusions drawn on the basis of selective experiment design stand up to scrutiny. By describing in detail and providing a reusable script with detailed description of all steps of the sensitivity analysis we hope to promote this important model exploration technique among modellers and the wider archaeological audience.

Authors 3

1. Hilde Kanters corresponding Aachen Faculty of Archaeology, Leiden University

   Leiden University

   Affiliation as printed

   Faculty of Archaeology, Leiden University, Netherlands

2. Tom Brughmans

   Aarhus University

   Affiliation as printed

   Classical Archaeology and Centre for Urban Network Evolutions (UrbNet), Aarhus University, Denmark

3. Iza Romanowska

   Aarhus University · Aarhus Institute of Advanced Studies

   Affiliation as printed

   Aarhus Institute of Advanced Studies, Aarhus University, Denmark