Estimation of incident dynamic AUC in practice

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol. 154, pp. 107095

Abstract

The incident/dynamic time-dependent AUC (Area Under the ROC Curve) is an appealing measure to express the discriminative value of a dynamic survival model over time. However, estimation of this measure is not straightforward. Four recently proposed estimation approaches are studied. In an extensive simulation study, a head-to-head comparison between these four estimation methods is made. The estimation algorithms of some of the methods are extended. Results are illustrated with a motivating dynamic survival model from Reproductive Medicine.

Authors 4

1. Nan van Geloven corresponding Aachen Department of Biomedical Data Sciences

   Leiden University Medical Center

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, PO box 9600, zone S5-P, 2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands

2. Yifei He Aachen Department of Biomedical Data Sciences

   Leiden University Medical Center

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, PO box 9600, zone S5-P, 2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands

3. Aeilko Having Zwinderman

   Amsterdam University Medical Centers · University of Amsterdam

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, AZ, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

4. Hein Putter Aachen Department of Biomedical Data Sciences

   Leiden University Medical Center

   Affiliation as printed

   Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, PO box 9600, zone S5-P, 2300 RC Leiden, The Netherlands