The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017
Earth system science data, vol. 12, pp. 1561–1623
Abstract
Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). Assessing the relative importance of CH4 in comparison to CO2 is complicated by its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and atmospheric growth rate variations over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down approach) to be 572 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 538–593, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the ensemble), of which 357 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ~ 60 % are attributed to anthropogenic sources (range 50–65 %). This total emission is 27 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the value estimated for the period 2000–2009 and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for the period 2003–2012 (Saunois et al. 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the carbon intensive scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Gidden et al., 2019). Bottom-up methods suggest larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 583–880) than top-down inversion methods, mostly because of larger estimated natural emissions from sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources. However the strength of the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, suggest that these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (~ 65 % of the global budget,
Authors 26
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Marielle Saunois corresponding
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines · Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · Université Paris-Saclay · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Affiliation as printed
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Affiliation as printed
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Science Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines · Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · Université Paris-Saclay · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Affiliation as printed
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines · Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · Université Paris-Saclay · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Affiliation as printed
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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École Polytechnique · Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique
Affiliation as printed
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, LMD-IPSL, Ecole Polytechnique, 91120 Palaiseau, France
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National Institute for Environmental Studies
Affiliation as printed
Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
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European Commission · Joint Research Centre
Affiliation as printed
European Commission Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (Va), Italy
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University of Bern · Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
Affiliation as printed
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstr. 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
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Environment and Climate Change Canada
Affiliation as printed
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
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Affiliation as printed
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université Paris Sciences et Lettres · Observatoire de Paris · Sorbonne Université · Laboratoire d’Etudes du Rayonnement et de la Matière en Astrophysique et Atmosphères
Affiliation as printed
Observatoire de Paris, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, LERMA, Paris, France
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines · Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · Université Paris-Saclay · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Affiliation as printed
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Stockholm University · Bolin Centre for Climate Research
Affiliation as printed
Department of Geological Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius väg 8, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Affiliation as printed
International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
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National Institute for Environmental Studies
Affiliation as printed
Center for Environmental Measurement and Analysis, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Onogawa16-2, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Affiliation as printed
Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy
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Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines · Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives · Université Paris-Saclay · Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Affiliation as printed
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Imperial College London · Technical University of Crete
Affiliation as printed
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece
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Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Affiliation as printed
KNMI, P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, the Netherlands
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Affiliation as printed
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth Sciences, Earth and Climate Cluster, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Scripps Institution of Oceanography · University of California San Diego
Affiliation as printed
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
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Environment and Climate Change Canada
Affiliation as printed
Environment and Climate Change Canada, 4905, rue Dufferin, Toronto, Canada
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Affiliation as printed
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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National Institute for Environmental Studies
Affiliation as printed
Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
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University of Maryland, College Park
Affiliation as printed
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
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Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory · Hohai University
Affiliation as printed
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
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